William Katz: Urgent Agenda
Today's edition of SNIPPETS is here.
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AFTERNOON POSTING: MAY 11, 2008
Posted at 3:56 p.m. ET
TRACKERS
New poll numbers just released show mixed results in the race for the Democratic nomination. Rasmussen has Obama up ten points over Clinton, the largest lead he's had in some time. However, Gallup has Obama up only four in a contest that has been relatively even since late April. Obama did not get the knockout boost, at least in the popular vote, that some expected he'd get as a result of Tuesday's primaries in North Carolina and Indiana.
The next Democratic primary is Tuesday, in West Virginia. Clinton is expected to win in a landslide. However, a word of caution: All the publicity over her lead in West Virginia may depress her vote. Some supporters, thinking she has an easy win, may neglect to vote.
In national polls, Gallup has Obama up three over McCain, but Rasmussen has him up only one. Again, Obama got no great boost from this week's primaries and all the publicity over his "inevitability."
Gallup has Clinton four up over McCain. Rasmussen has her up five.
Senator Clinton continues to show her strength, regardless of what the pundits say. This is only informed speculation, but Americans sometimes display an ornery streak - a wish to put pundits in their place and assert their independence. It will be fascinating to see if Clinton actually gains in national polls if she scores a blowout in West Virginia on Tuesday.
May 11, 2008.
SUNDAY: MAY 11, 2008
Posted at 7:51 a.m. ET
THE REPUBLICAN DILEMMA
And yes, there is one. No one thinks the GOP is in a great position this year. The Politico has an analysis of the problem that is so grim that it will send you running to the nearest house of worship:
John McCain is planning to run as a different kind of Republican. But being any kind of Republican seems like some sort of death sentence these days.
In case you’ve been too consumed by the Democratic race to notice, Republicans are getting crushed in historic ways both at the polls and in the polls.
At the polls, it has been a massacre. In recent weeks, Republicans have lost a Louisiana House seat they had held for more than two decades and an Illinois House seat they had held for more than three. Internal polls show that next week they could lose a Mississippi House seat that they have held for 13 years.
In the polls, they are setting records (and not the good kind). The most recent Gallup Poll has 67 percent of voters disapproving of President Bush; those numbers are worse than Richard Nixon’s on the eve of his resignation. A CBS News poll taken at the end of April found only 33 percent of Americans have a favorable view of the GOP — the lowest since CBS started asking the question more than two decades ago. By comparison, 52 percent of the public has a favorable view of the Democratic Party.
Things are so bad that many people don’t even want to call themselves Republicans. The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press has found the lowest percentage of self-described Republicans in 16 years of polling.
But we knew that already. Look, I don't want to minimize the crisis. But polls like this are about the past, not about the future. I do think it's likely that the Democrats will make major gains in the House and Senate this year. However, let's remember that in the 1942 Congressional elections, less than a year after Pearl Harbor, in the midst of a war that had overwhelming support, President Roosevelt's Democratic Party lost 45 seats in the House and eight in the Senate. True, Democrats retained control of both houses, but by lesser majorities. Voters can turn resentful over a number of things, including wartime casualties and restrictions. But they may not stay resentful, and their anger can be directed at one party one year, and the other the next.
If Democrats sweep the elections, they will have to govern. They'll learn, as parties always do, that governing is the hard part. Start looking ahead to the 2010 elections. They're only two years away.
Also, John McCain is polling rather well. The Politico's piece points out that 1976 was a Democratic year as well, the first presidential election after Watergate. Gerald Ford was a nondescript president. And yet, he came close to defeating Jimmy Carter. John McCain is far more impressive than Ford, and Barack Obama has a number of liabilities. McCain can pull this out, even if his party takes a bath in Congress.
May 11, 2008. Permalink 
THE DEM DIVIDE
And let's not forget the deep, personal divisions within the Democratic Party. The Washington Post reports on a group of Clinton supporters who will not give up, and who ventured to West Virginia, which holds its primary on Tuesday:
Clinton's most loyal supporters -- the ones still standing on street corners -- have adopted their candidate's motto, even as she trails Sen. Barack Obama by an insurmountable margin in pledged delegates: to fight like hell, despite dim odds and denigration, until someone officially wins the Democratic nomination.
But on this day, the intersection of Highway 480 and German Street, where they stood, divided Shepherdstown into two factions. College kids from Shepherd University approached from the north, angry that Clinton has remained in a race she appears destined to lose. Truck drivers and farmers approached from the south, their support for Clinton fortified by her perseverance.
Boy, does that tell the story. It's almost a classic town/gown conflict. And...
The two groups met at the intersection in a cacophony of honking horns and shouting that echoed across this town of about 1,000 near the Maryland border. After two hours, Luanne Smith had heard enough.
"It's become so personal, just one insult after another," Smith said. "These sides are starting to feel some hate for each other. Everybody is angry, but I'm going to keep at this as long as I can. I never want to look myself in the mirror and say, 'You quit. You didn't do your part.' "
No matter what the polls currently show, it's impossible to predict the future of this schism within a party. If Obama doesn't handle it correctly, or if there's another Rev. Wright in his traveling trunk, the division can blow up in his face.
May 11, 2008. Permalink
IN THE REAL WORLD
Our election campaign is mild compared to other campaigns we may have to wage in the future. London's Guardian, a leftist paper I rarely quote, has a remarkable story about a man whose distorted view of Islam led him to murder his own daughter. It is this kind of mentality that we might have to fight all over the world, and it puts our election campaign in perspective. Who is best to lead us in this struggle?
For Abdel-Qader Ali there is only one regret: that he did not kill his daughter at birth. 'If I had realised then what she would become, I would have killed her the instant her mother delivered her,' he said with no trace of remorse.
Two weeks after The Observer revealed the shocking story of Rand Abdel-Qader, 17, murdered because of her infatuation with a British solider in Basra, southern Iraq, her father is defiant. Sitting in the front garden of his well-kept home in the city's Al-Fursi district, he remains a free man, despite having stamped on, suffocated and then stabbed his student daughter to death.
Abdel-Qader, 46, a government employee, was initially arrested but released after two hours. Astonishingly, he said, police congratulated him on what he had done. 'They are men and know what honour is,' he said.
Rand, who was studying English at Basra University, was deemed to have brought shame on her family after becoming infatuated with a British soldier, 22, known only as Paul.
She died a virgin, according to her closest friend Zeinab. Indeed, her 'relationship' with Paul, which began when she worked as a volunteer helping displaced families and he was distributing water, appears to have consisted of snatched conversations over less than four months. But the young, impressionable Rand fell in love with him, confiding her feelings and daydreams to Zeinab, 19.
It was her first youthful infatuation and it would be her last. She died on 16 March after her father discovered she had been seen in public talking to Paul, considered to be the enemy, the invader and a Christian. Though her horrified mother, Leila Hussein, called Rand's two brothers, Hassan, 23, and Haydar, 21, to restrain Abdel-Qader as he choked her with his foot on her throat, they joined in. Her shrouded corpse was then tossed into a makeshift grave without ceremony as her uncles spat on it in disgust.
Please notice the silence of the "feminist" groups. Please notice the lack of protest in our universities. After all, who are we to judge another culture?
We're thoughtful, intelligent human beings. That's who we are. And we have a perfect right to describe the above actions in whatever terms we wish to use, obscene or not.
Be back later. Contemplate this last story.
May 11, 2008. Permalink
EVENING POSTINGS: MAY 10, 2008
Posted at 7:39 p.m.
MORE POLLS
Gallup's tracking results are now up. For the Dem nomination, Gallup has Obama up five, not exactly a blowout considering the obituaries written for Clinton this past week.
In the general, Gallup has Obama up one over McCain, as does Rasmussen. Gallup has Clinton up four over McCain. Ras says five.
So, once again, Senator Clinton's strength remains remarkably stable. Is it pro-Clinton or anti-Obama? Whatever it is, Senator Clinton outperforms Senator Obama in the general election. The Democrats will have to deal with this.
May 10, 2008. Permalink
PROTECTING OBAMA
The Washington Post surveys how the black community is rising up to protect Barack Obama, even going after other blacks who don't follow the line. Is it ethnic politics at its worst? Or best? You have to decide that:
In black America, oh, how the mighty have fallen.
Bill Clinton is no longer revered as the "first black president." Tavis Smiley's rapid-fire commentaries on a popular radio show have been silenced. And the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., self-described defender of the black church, has been derided by many on the Web as an old man who needs to "step off."
They all landed in the black community's doghouse after being viewed as endangering Sen. Barack Obama's chances of being elected president. And the community's desire to protect the first African American ever to be in this position may only grow with his win in North Carolina and his close loss in Indiana this week.
But at what point does it become racial intimidation, even intimidation against other blacks? The piece goes on:
When Bill Clinton called Obama's position on Iraq a "fairy tale" in New Hampshire, "I think black people felt betrayed," said Andrea Plaid, a blogger who writes under the pen name the Cruel Secretary. African Americans continued to regard Clinton highly even after he was impeached for lying under oath. "And you turn around and do this to us?" Plaid said.
Smiley, the renowned black author and commentator, took issue with Obama for skipping his "Covenant With Black America" event in New Orleans so he could campaign in Texas and Ohio. The resulting backlash left Smiley feeling "hammered" and "barbequed" by black Americans.
"There's all this talk of 'hater,' 'sellout' and 'traitor,' " Smiley said at the time. ". . . They are harassing my mama, harassing my brother."
And...
Barbara Reynolds, a black columnist who brokered Wright's appearance at the press club, was also under assault. She rejected a wave of rumors that cast her as a Hillary Clinton supporter who set up Wright to damage Obama.
Welcome to ethnic cheerleading. What is needed now, obviously, is for Barack Obama to intervene to stop the threats and intimidation. He needs to give another "race" speech in which he identifies himself as an American candidate who happens to be black, but who understands that people, including other blacks, have a right to criticize him without reprisal.
Will he give that speech? I don't think so. The intimidation works for him...so far.
May 10, 2008. Permalink
HYPOCRISY
Confederate Yankee has a remarkable story of double standards in journalism - one standard for the left, one for the right. Or, maybe it's a story of two networks - one that has rules, and the other that doesn't:
So When Will Chris Matthews Get Fired?
A Fox News staffer was fired this morning. Why? She told John McCain that she voted for him in a primary because her father was a Vietnam veteran.
I kid you not:
A 24-year-old Fox News Channel production assistant was fired this morning for something she said during the red carpet arrivals at the Time 100 Gala last night.
Insiders tell us the assistant, identified as Jennifer Locke, was on assignment with a camera crew to cover the entertainment angle of the event. When Sen. John McCain walked by, the assistant said, "I voted for you in the primary, you're going to win."
McCain was overheard saying to her, "You're not supposed to reveal that." Locke apparently continued to explain that she is the daughter of Vietnam veteran.
McCain is correct. Such disclosures are journalistically unacceptable, and Fox was right to release the staffer on those grounds.
So when is MSNBC going to step up to those same standards and dismiss Chris Matthews for his on-air announcement that Barack Obama caused a"thrill" up his leg? Is telling a candidate that you voted for him unacceptable, but blurting out a homo-erotic reaction to a candidate's speech not a level of disclosure that is forbidden, even if that disclosure is merely hyperbole making the journalist's personal attraction to the candidate equally strong? Should it matter that this is the second time Matthews has related his "man-crush" on the air?
Yes, I know better... MSNBC doesn't have journalistic standards. It would be nice, however, if they'd fake it every one in a while.
Yeah, it's like the British stiff upper lip. Sometimes you have to fake it.
May 10, 2008. Permalink
AFTERNOON POSTING: MAY 10, 2008
Posted at 2:21 p.m. ET
TRACKER
Rasmussen has the only new tracker out at this hour. He has Obama up one over McCain in the general election, but he also has Clinton up five over McCain.
For the Democratic nomination, we await clarification, as Rasmussen has Obama ahead in his written commentary, but Clinton ahead in the accompanying chart.
The national result shows once more that Senator Clinton is maintaining her strength despite the week's storm. Either that, or some people just won't vote for Obama.
Of equal significance, though, is that Senator McCain is not advancing. McCain and Obama have similar favorable/unfavorable numbers, an erosion for McCain.
Trackers are useful primarily to study trends. Thus far, no one is breaking away. This will be a hard-fought race.
May 10, 2008. Permalink
SATURDAY: MAY 10, 2008
Posted at 8:12 a.m. ET
CANONIZATION
The process of turning Barack Obama into a saint is well along, nudged by worshippers and true believers in the mainstream media. Victor Davis Hanson assesses the advantages of sainthood for the Illinois senator:
Almost imperceptibly to the McCain campaign, I think Obama has already established quite new messianic rules of engagement that will be difficult to overturn: he talks about supposedly illiberal Pennsylvanians as a racial group or quips “typical white person”, associates with the racist Wright, and counts on a solid base that votes 90 percent along racial lines, and you are a racist for being disturbed by that Manichaeism. He talks of hope/change, new politics, unity, and bipartisanship and you are cynical and hateful for not buying it and instead worrying that he has a serial propensity for distortion (“100 years”) and invective (“lost his bearings”). The immediate advantage is that the nonbeliever is always ridiculed for his devilish skepticism; the eventual downside for Obama is that the loftier the prophet, the more transparent his all-too-human transgressions.
We hope that McCain can illuminate those transgressions. Thus far, he's playing softball, and barely makes it into the news. That will have to change, especially as he's facing a candidate who got his political education on the streets of Chicago.
May 10, 2008. Permalink
ANOTHER DEPARTURE
The saintly candidate has now de-blessed another adviser. Robert Malley, who has a propensity for finding wonderful things to say about the Arab side in the Arab-Israeli conflict, has resigned from the Obama campaign after his meetings with Hamas were revealed:
A principal Middle East adviser to US presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama resigned on Friday after reports surfaced that he had been in repeated contact with members of Hamas.
According to the reports, Rob Malley interviewed Hamas officials, as well as Israeli, Palestinian, and other international officials, as research for reports he wrote for the International Crisis Group, a non-partisan conflict-resolution think tank.Malley, also a former National Security Council aide to President Bill Clinton, said that all visits with Hamas members were coordinated with the State Department, and that the government was always briefed following the meetings.
Yet despite his justifications, Malley chose on Friday to resign from the campaign so as to keep critics from getting distracted.
"To do my job, I have to meet with savory and unsavory people," he said, but added that after receiving yet another inquiry on the matter on Friday morning, he finally chose to step away from his advisory role."This was a distraction for me; this was a distraction for them," he said Friday night. "It is absurd, but that is what this campaign is about."
The Obama campaign downplayed the development on Friday, emphasizing that Malley's role was informal from the start.
Have you noticed how the word "distraction" comes up repeatedly in the Obama camp? Every time an embarrassing issue is raised it's called a "distraction." The only legitimate issues, in the eyes of the Obama troops, are the ones raised by Obama himself.
Obama is making a big push to keep the Jewish vote in the Democratic column this year, which explains Malley's departure. Polls suggest that Jews may defect, Reagan-scale, to McCain.
Oh, by the way, this incident reminds us of one that occurred during the storied administration of Jimmah Carter. United Nations Ambassador Andrew Young was forced out after it was revealed he'd met with the Palestine Liberation Organization, a violation of government policy at the time. There was a great show of emotion at the White House over his departure, the subtext of which was the power of the Israel lobby. Not much changes in the land of Jimmah, the first self-proclaimed saint to occupy the Oval Office.
May 10, 2008. Permalink
THE BRITISH VIEW
Once again some of the most astute reporting on our campaign is being done by British journalists. Gerard Baker of The Times of London gives us an overview, with some fascinating tidbits:
And so the scenery changes and the stage is set for a general election campaign, somewhat shorter than most had expected, but still, at more than five months, quite long enough for most voters.
It should be quite a show. For starters, it features a number of historic firsts. Everyone knows by now that Senator Obama would be the first black president. But John McCain will also have a singularity by dint of his birth - the first man born outside the United States to become president (since being native-born American is a condition of eligibility for the presidency, Senator McCain only qualifies by virtue of the fact that when he was born there, the Panama Canal Zone was a US territory).
It will also be the first election to be fought between two sitting members of the US Senate; one of them will be the first senator to become president since John Kennedy and only the second in the nation's history.
Mr McCain is bidding to be the oldest man ever to be elected president for the first time; Mr Obama one of the youngest: the first truly intergenerational presidential campaign - at 25 years the widest age difference between the two main parties' candidates.
The identity of the two candidates also speaks to a significant geographic shift in the centre of gravity of American politics. It will be the first election since 1984 in which neither candidate has roots in, or a strong connection with, the South.
I'd have a bit of a quibble with that last point. I think John McCain has a kind of spiritual connection with the South that will show up in the campaign. He comes from a Navy tradition, and the Navy, indeed the entire military, is well associated with the South. He was trained as a naval aviator at Pensacola, Florida. Southerners feel comfortable with military people.
Baker continues, and makes a critical point:
But the presidential contest is as much about the characters of the candidates as it is about the politics, and that is why Mr McCain has a chance. Voters will have to weigh the general haziness of Mr Obama's background, his odd connections, perhaps for some his race, certainly his inexperience, against Mr McCain's heroic life story, his age and his famously short temper.
And don't forget that President Bush, especially in foreign policy, can take actions in the coming months that may have an enormous impact on the election.
May 10, 2008. Permalink
NERVE
Finally, there is nerve, and then there is nerve. There was this big meeting in Illinois hosted by a Democratic congresswoman. Michelle Obama spoke about becoming first lady, dread the thought.
But there was someone else there. Valerie Plame showed up. You remember Valerie, don't you? Courageous CIA agent, her identity revealed by a sinister Bush White House, except that it wasn't? Wife of self-proclaimed hero Joe Wilson, whose time testifying before Congress was equaled only by his time at the hairdresser?
So Valerie Plame commented on her connection with Michelle Obama: "We both have small children, we have both been very private people thrust into a public role," she said.
Thrust? Thrust? Have you ever seen Joe and Valerie work the press? Have you ever seen Joe and Valerie pose for Vanity Fair? Have you ever seen Joe and Valerie grab those book contracts?
Thrust? Oh, please.
Be back later.
May 10, 2008. Permalink
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- Lester Markel,
late Sunday editor of
The New York Times
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