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JANUARY 27,  2012

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:31 P.M. ET:

NEWT'S TROUBLES CONTINUE – As we approach the last weekend before the Florida primary, it's becoming even more clear that the onslaught against Newt Gingrich is taking its toll.  Two new polls now show Romney well ahead of Newt.  A Reuters poll has Romney up eight.  A Quinnipiac poll has him up nine.  A Romney win wouldn't clinch the nomination for him, but it would certainly put a major dent in Newt's rise. 

MORE BANG FOR THE BUCK – The Wall Street Journal will report tomorrow that the Pentagon has judged that its largest conventional bomb could not penetrate the best protection that Iran has built for its nuclear facilities.  So, Congress has been asked for more funding to make the bomb, known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, more effective.  Secretary Panetta believes the U.S. will have a greater capability with the MOP "soon."  Of course, Iran isn't standing still, and continues to improve its own defenses.

THE SYRIAN DISGRACE – Our eyes have been averted, but the Syrian bloodbath continues, with other nations doing very little about it.  Government forces are bombarding several towns with heavy artillery, inflicting significant casualties on the civilian populations.  The UN Security Council, meanwhile, is debating possible action, and debating, and debating.  It is estimated that more than 5,000 people have died in the Syrian violence since March.  Notice the interest of Western leftists and "intellectuals."  They were far more interested in a minor American prison scandal in Iraq, in which no one died or was seriously injured.  The fighting in Syria is getting closer to the capital city of Damascus.  Russia and Iran are backing the Syrian regime, another sign of America's declining influence.

MUST HAVE BEEN TYPING MISTAKES – Reuters, which I think has shown some improvement in recent years, is reeling over one of the greatest embarrassments it has suffered in covering American politics.  The British-based service ran a naked hit piece on Marco Rubio yesterday.  But before the ink was dry, so to speak, Reuters had to issue five corrections, and there are charges that seven more are in order.  This is a journalistic failure of the first magnitude.  The only thing that saved the day for Reuters was its quick, and commendable, action in realizing that it had a lemon, and correcting it.  There is no word yet on whether a date of execution has been set for the reporter involved, but it should be.

January 27, 2012       Permalink

ECONOMY GREW, BUT STRUGGLES – AT 9:16 A.M. ET:  The U.S. economy grew last quarter, but the numbers were disappointing.  From Bloomberg: 

The U.S. economy expanded less than forecast in the fourth quarter as consumers curbed spending and government agencies cut back, validating the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates low for a longer period.

Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, climbed at a 2.8 percent annual following a 1.8 percent gain in the prior quarter, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 3 percent increase. Excluding a jump in inventories, growth was 0.8 percent.

Fed officials this week said they were concerned about the economy’s lack of vigor two years after the last recession ended, prompting a pledge to keep interest rates low into 2014. The improvement in the job market has yet to translate into gains in wages large enough to propel bigger gains in household spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy.

“We’re going into 2012 with less momentum than people were thinking,” said Michael Hanson, a senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York. “Income growth was modest and the savings rate came down, and those are not sustainable ways to get consumers to contribute going forward.”

COMMENT:  Translated, the "recovery" isn't reaching the average household, and that's what people see.  That will also heavily determine the way they vote in November.

January 27, 2012       Permalink

REMARKABLE MARCO – AT 8:56 A.M. ET:  It was inevitable that Marco Rubio's name would play prominently in the Florida primary.  He is the young Republican senator from that state, and a star. 

A number of people urged him to run for president, but he refused.  He also says he isn't a candidate for vice president, but both Romney and Gingrich have suggested that they might name him to the ticket. 

I think Rubio is terrific, and I wish he'd have run for the top spot.  Is he inexperienced?  In a way, yes.  But he has more experience than Barack Obama had when he ran, so that checkmates that issue for the Democrats.  Rubio, before going to the U.S. Senate, was speaker of the Florida House.

Would he be a good vice presidential candidate?  Probably, yes.  But I'd imagine he'd only take the nomination if he saw it as a steppingstone to the presidency, and that's problematic...unless his ticket won.  Several vice presidents have gone on to the presidency in our time, either on their own or through unfortunate circumstances.  Truman, Nixon, Johnson, Ford, and Bush 41 had been vice president.  However, vice presidential candidates on a losing ticket are a different matter.  Only one in relatively recent memory became president, and that was Franklin D. Roosevelt, who'd been the Democratic candidate for vice president in 1920...and that was 92 years ago. 

So Rubio is probably looking closely at the chances for a Republican victory this year.   He would add much to the ticket, especially because he'd be the first Hispanic on a national ticket in American history.  But he might have Americans wishing that he was at the top, and no presidential candidate would want that.

January 27, 2012       Permalink

SOONER OR LATER – AT 8:43 A.M. ET:  Two terror plots are in the news.  Both are portrayed as the work of lone operators.  Maybe.  But they are getting these ideas from somewhere, and, one of these days, a "lone" operator is going to do devastating damage.  From Fox:

A man pleaded guilty Thursday to attempting to blow up a Maryland military recruiting center as part of a foiled terror plot.

Antonio Martinez, 22, admitted trying to use a weapon of mass destruction to blow up an Armed Forces recruiting center in Catonsville in December 2010, The Baltimore Sun reported Thursday.

The Maryland man, who also uses the name Muhammed Hussain, faces 25 years in prison over the foiled plot after coming to an agreement with prosecutors, the newspaper said.

He was arrested on Dec. 8, 2010, after he attempted to detonate what he believed to be explosives, supplied by federal agents, at the recruiting center.

And, also from Fox:

A Marine veteran from Virginia pleaded guilty Thursday and has agreed to serve a 25-year prison sentence on charges that he fired a series of overnight pot shots in 2010 at the Pentagon, the Marine Corps museum in Quantico and other military targets as part of what prosecutors called a campaign to strike fear throughout the region.

Prosecutors also revealed Thursday new details about Yonathan Melaku's intended next target: Arlington National Cemetery, where he was arrested before he was able to carry out a plan to deface gravestones there...

...Prosecutors also released a video, made by Melaku, that was part of the evidence in the case, in which Melaku is seen firing shots at the National Museum of the Marine Corps as he drives by from I-95, where the museum is easily visible. In the video, Melaku shouts "God is Great!" in Arabic and talks about targeting the museum and "turning it off permanently."

COMMENT:  But who are we to question other cultures.  Right?

January 27, 2012       Permalink

NEWT'S BAD NIGHT – AT 8:23 A.M. ET:  I should say from the outset that I think Newt Gingrich plays a valuable role, as an intellectual gadfly, in the Republican Party.  But I have serious doubts about his viability as a presidential candidate. 

Newt's problem, and I'm about the ten thousandth person to say it, is that he's a loose cannon who crashes regularly.  He did it again last night in a Florida debate, the last before Tuesday's primary, in which he clearly was not at his best.  Most pundits think Romney defeated him by quite a bit, and I agree.

Newt tried his familiar tactic – attacking the moderator.  It has worked before.  As readers know, I have little love for today's mainstream media, but criticism has to be accurate, well-timed, and not simply a rhetorical gimmick.  Last night, Newt flopped.

(Reuters) - Republican Newt Gingrich has had great success recently by firing up conservative voters with attacks on debate moderators. But a flat-footed performance in Thursday's debate suggests he might have tried the tactic once too often.

The former U.S. House speaker's runaway win in the South Carolina primary on Saturday was attributed in large part to the way he went after the mainstream media in general and debate moderators in particular.

But Gingrich's jab at Thursday's moderator, Wolf Blitzer of CNN, failed to stick as he, Romney, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum and Texas Representative Ron Paul took part in the final debate before Tuesday's Republican primary.

"This is a nonsense question," Gingrich huffed when Blitzer asked about Romney's tax and financial disclosures. "How about if the four of us agree for the rest of the evening, we'll actually talk about issues that relate to governing America?" Gingrich said.

The comment drew moderate applause but Blitzer did not back down.

"Mr. Speaker, you made an issue of this, this week, when you said that, 'He lives in a world of Swiss bank and Cayman Island bank accounts.' I didn't say that. You did."

COMMENT:  And Blitzer was right.  When you make a charge in a campaign, it becomes a legitimate issue.  Newt overplayed his hand.  While he got moderate applause, that's all he got.

And Blitzer is not a good target.  He plays it pretty straight, is a good journalist, and one of the people who keeps CNN above water.  He also does not have the arrogance and smugness of some others. 

Newt often makes excellent points.  He speaks truths others are afraid to speak.  His attacks on the media, when well-timed, are true, and needed.  But he's got to get beyond one-liners.

Romney is gaining in the Florida polls.  If he pulls out a victory on Tuesday, Newt will have a tough climb.

January 27,  2012     Permalink

JANUARY 26,  2012

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:15 P.M. ET: 

HILLARY ASSERTS – Hillary Clinton has now said definitively that she will get out of politics at the end of Obama's term, no matter who is elected president.  Now, she's said this before and we have the right to be skeptical.  But, look, maybe she's tired, and maybe she wants to make as much money as Bill has (tens of millions).  If Obama is re-elected (my heart just skipped four beats) his choice of a new secretary will be a key signal as to his direction in a second term.  And why do I think Hillary might be back in four years if there's no other logical candidate for president in 2016?

A GRIM CHARGE – A drama with potential political implications is being played out in New York.  Greg Kelly, the son of New York City Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, and a Fox News personality, is being investigated on a rape charge.  A woman alleges that she was sexually assaulted by Kelly, became pregnant, and had the baby aborted.  Ray Kelly is the highest profile police commissioner in the country and has been talked about for higher office.  If the charge turns out to be true then, obviously, our first thoughts must go to the traumatized victim.  But there can then be political effects down the line.  But it is only a charge, and thus far we've seen no specific evidence.  We take no stand.

REVERSAL OF FORTUNE – Last week the Obama administration was riding high on news that jobless claims had gone way down.  What a difference a week makes.  Jobless claims were up again this week, and creeping toward the 400,000 mark that economists see as a serious danger point.  In addition, new home sales slumped, adding to worries that the housing market has years to go before it recovers from its burst bubble.  A full court press is underway to convince us that the economy is on the rebound, and that, to quote another president, "prosperity is just around the corner."  But the corner looks far away once again.

HEY, IT'S THE ARAB SPRING – Six Americans, including the son of U.S. Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood, are being detained in Egypt.  The six have been working on behalf of Egyptian democracy.  The administration has expressed understandable outrage, but this is a very poor omen for the Arab spring, which is turning winter-like faster than expected.  And yet, as we reported this morning, the Obamans want to increase aid to Egypt, despite the fact that the anti-Christian and anti-Jewish Muslim Brotherhood will now be in control of the country.

January 26, 2012       Permalink

THE VISIBLE JEB – AT 9:42 A.M. ET:  Have you noticed that Jeb Bush seems to be suddenly in the news a great deal?  While he denies any interest in running for president, he has certainly kept his options open by refusing to endorse any candidate in the Florida primary.  He is, of course, an influential former governor of Florida.

We noted yesterday a fine column in National Review urging Bush to run.  And now there's this, from Bush himself, in the Washington Post.  Why do I think it's kind of an advertisement for what he can do for the GOP?

In the 15 states that are likely to decide who controls the White House and the Senate in 2013, Hispanic voters will represent the margin of victory.

For the Republican Party, the stakes could not be greater. Just eight years after the party’s successful effort to woo Hispanic voters in 2004, this community — the fastest-growing group in the United States, according to census data — has drifted away.

Although Democrats hold the edge, Republicans have an opportunity. We also have a record of winning Hispanic voters in certain statewide and national elections.

By that he means Florida, where he did very well among Hispanic voters in his gubernatorial runs.  Say what you will, but this sounds very much like a campaign pitch.  Bush is proclaiming, "I've done it before and I can do it again."

We need to connect immigration to other pro-growth policies, so that new Americans can apply their talents here and succeed. The United States needs an economy that is vibrant and dynamic, open to the contributions of new entrants. We have to reduce regulations across our economy, whenever they impede economic dynamism and flexibility in the labor market. We need secure energy supplies, radical tax reform and a reduced footprint of power of the state.

Immigration reform requires economic reforms. We must be able to assure new Americans the opportunity to succeed and contribute their talents.

And when they come, as surely they will, we must welcome them, no matter whether they speak Spanish or Creole or Portuguese. When we hear foreign languages in the streets of America, that is a validation of the Republican vision to create a place where people want to come and make their lives. Hispanics here speak or are learning English — not French, Chinese or Hindi. There is a lesson in that, and Republicans should be the ones to champion it.

COMMENT:  Very well done.  Look the guy over.

January 26, 2012       Permalink

HOW SMART IS THIS? – AT 9:19 A.M. ET:   When he came to office, President Obama, believing his own press clippings, promised a "smarter" foreign policy.  As yet, we fail to see how all this brainpower has actually benefited us.  Maybe a list could be provided.

And now we have this:

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 25 (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama plans to accelerate the pace of American aid to Egypt, a top State Department official said on Wednesday, as the most populous Arab nation reaches a critical stage in its uncertain transition away from autocratic rule.

Undersecretary of State Robert Hormats, part of a U.S. delegation that held unprecedented talks last week with Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, said Washington wanted to provide "more immediate benefits" to Egyptians, who earlier this month conducted their first democratic elections in decades.

"During this period, we want to be as supportive as we can. This is an historic moment. Egypt's a country of enormous importance," Hormats said.

Wait, wait a second.  Don't you think we ought to be sure where the money is going before the American taxpayers write the checks?  The Muslim Brotherhood is not exactly a Yank-friendly fraternity. 

Under the plan, some non-urgent U.S. aid slated for other countries - he did not name them - would be redirected to Egypt. And funding in the pipeline for long-term programs in Egypt would be shifted to quick-impact projects, he said.

Hormats, speaking to Reuters on the sidelines of the annual World Economic Forum, emphasized that the White House had not made any final decisions, and that he was providing Washington's "broad thinking" on the subject.

And...

Congress approved $1.3 billion in military aid to Egypt for the current fiscal year, but with conditions attached. It also approved $250 million in economic aid, as well as an "enterprise fund" of up to $60 million.

For the money to flow, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton must certify that the Egyptian government is supporting the transition to a civilian government, including holding free and fair elections, and implementing policies to protect freedom of expression, association, and religion, and due process of law.

Yeah, fat chance.  Freedom of religion?  The Christian population of Egypt, about 10%, is shaking in its boots, and a number of Christians are leaving.

In addition, the law says that none of the aid, military or economic, can be spent unless Egypt is meeting its obligations under the 1979 Egypt-Israel peace treaty.

COMMENT:   For the record, the Muslim Brotherhood has announced, in no uncertain terms, that it will not have any dialogue with Israel.

You can be sure, though, that Hillary will do what she is told by the White House, and certify anything that Obama wants certified.

Another triumph of "smartness."  Choke.

January 26, 2012        Permalink

NEWT STUMBLES – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  Newt Gingrich goes through regular crises.   Like an experimental rocket, he roars off, flies high, then crashes.

It seems to be happening in Florida.  We reported in "Short Takes" last night that Romney is gaining on Gingrich in that state, which votes in its primary on Tuesday.  From Fox:

A two-man fight for Florida is emerging ahead of the state's final Republican presidential debate Thursday, with polls showing the race neck and neck as Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich pound each other over personal and professional vulnerabilities.

A new Time magazine/CNN poll had the race in a virtual tie between Romney and Gingrich, 36-34 percent among 369 registered Republicans who are likely to vote in the Florida presidential primary. The survey was taken between Jan. 22-24. Rick Santorum had 11 percent and Ron Paul was taking 9 percent of the vote.

The latter two candidates are far back in Florida, in part because they have been concentrating on other states.
According to the latest American Research Group poll of 600 likely GOP primary voters, Romney leads his rivals with 41 percent followed by Gingrich with 34 percent, Santorum with 9 percent and Paul with 7 percent.

With the race tight, Romney's campaign may be benefiting from a decision to concentrate on early voting. The ARG poll found 17 percent of likely primary voters said they had already voted absentee or early. Among this group, Romney was leading Gingrich 51-39 percent. For those who haven't voted yet, the race was 39-33 percent Romney to Gingrich.

One of the benefits of America's long presidential campaigns, routinely criticized in other countries, is that it allows voters a second and third look at candidates.  Gingrich was gaining dramatically in Florida, but a second look is giving voters some hesitation. 

Yesterday, Gingrich conceded he had made a false claim, not a good development:

After nearly a week on the defensive, CNN's John King reports tonight that Newt Gingrich's claim about offering witnesses to ABC News in his defense — to rebut the network's interview with his second wife, Marianne Gingrich — was not true.

"Tonight, after persistent questioning by our staff, the Gingrich campaign concedes now Speaker Gingrich was wrong — both in his debate answer, and in our interview yesterday," King said on tonight's edition of John King USA. "Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond says the only people the Gingrich campaign offered to ABC were his two daughters from his first marriage."

COMMENT:  But there is still no joy in the Republican Party, with a widespread belief that none of the candidates arouses enthusiasm.  While many "professionals" dismiss the idea, a growing number of Republicans, in surveys, say they want more choices.

January 26, 2012       Permalink

GROW UP – AT 8:39 A.M. ET:  Someone once wrote of Harry Truman that "he did the biggest things in the biggest ways and the littlest things in the littlest ways."

It was those big things we remember, which is why Harry is now regarded as a great or near-great president.

But Obama does Truman one better.  Obama does both the biggest things and the littlest things in the littlest ways.  I mean, do you get this one, from Fox?

CHANDLER, Ariz. -- President Obama and Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer had what was described as an intense encounter on the tarmac after the president arrived in the Grand Canyon state on Wednesday.

Brewer greeted the president as he arrived off Air Force One, as governors often do when the president visits a state, and handed him a letter that she described as a “welcome” note to the state, and an invitation to talk about a comeback for her state.

"He immediately took umbrage, if you will with my book, 'Scorpions for Breakfast,' and was somewhat disgruntled, if you will, by the way he was portrayed," Brewer later told Fox News in an interview with Greta Van Susteren. "He's very thin-skinned."

And...

Reporters who witnessed the exchange Wednesday more closely described that the two spoke “intensely” and chatted longer than the typical meet and greet on the runway. The pool report also says Brewer was pointing her finger at him at one point and they seemed to also being talking over one another in another instance. Obama also appears to be walking away from her while they were still talking, and she later said she didn’t finish her sentence in the exchange.

COMMENT:  This is what's on Obama's mind?  He doesn't like the way he was portrayed?  So he confronts a governor on the tarmac? 

The president of the United States has risen to the level of a student government leader.  Maybe that's progress.

January 26,  2012     Permalink