INDIANA

A new, but relatively small poll out in Indiana shows, essentially, a dead heat between Clinton and Obama.  (It actually shows Obama up one, and was taken after the Pennsylvania results were known.)  This can't be good news for Hillary Clinton, as a win in Indiana on May 6th is important to maintaining the momentum and fundraising that came out of Tuesday's Pennsylvania victory.  Indiana is right next door to Obama's home state of Illinois.  He's known in Indiana, and the Chicago media market includes Indiana's northwest section.  Also, Indiana contains some large academic communities, where support for Obama is feverish.  Anthropologists are stuffing envelopes, political scientists are handing out brochures at the various Noam Chomsky devotion centers. 

I should point out that Illinois is actually Hillary Clinton's original home state as well.  But she's had so many.

If Clinton loses Indiana, however, she won't pull out.  That's a foregone conclusion.  The reason is that two solid Clinton states, West Virginia and Kentucky, vote, respectively, on the 13th and 20th.  Any momentum Clinton loses in Indiana she'd hope to make up with those two, then proceed to an expected victory in the "Hispanic" primary, Puerto Rico, on June 1st.

Look, barring a major jolt, the nomination will go to Obama, for the African-American vote is the key to any Democratic victory in November, and that community will not be denied.  But there have been major jolts in this campaign, and Hillary must go to bed every night praying for another weird Obama "friend" to come out of the woodwork between now and San Juan.

April 25, 2008.