DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE - AT 7:53 A.M. ET:  When Barack Obama took office, we were presented with a picture of an almost saintly leader presiding over the Church of the Mesmerized Democrats.  Dissent would not be heard because all was so wonderful and wise.  Everyone was in place and in line.  Bishop Rahm Emanuel would observe each day for any sign of heresy.

Well, things apparently didn't work out, and not too many people are coming in to be ordained.  Indeed, more and more Democrats are declaring their independence, as they see the president's poll numbers drop.  The Politico reports the independent streak of a key player in health care:

Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) dismisses the Sept. 15 deadline given by President Barack Obama for Senate negotiators to produce a health reform bill.

“We are going to be ready when we’re ready,” he said on "Fox News Sunday."

Conrad, one of the key Senate negotiators on the health reform bill, said lawmakers hope to be done by mid-September. But if they don't have all the answers they need from the Congressional Budget Office, “we will not be bound by any deadlines,” Conrad said, stressing that the most important goal is to get reform right.

Conrad also shot down the public option, saying that "there are not the votes in the United States Senate” for it.

“There never have been," he said. "So to continue to chase that rabbit is just a wasted effort.”

COMMENT:  Poll numbers are to politics what Nielsen ratings are to television.  If your numbers are weak, your friends run away and you don't get the choice parking slots. 

Obama is now struggling.  He will always have the loyalty of most of the Democrats in Congress because most are liberals.  But there is an important group of moderates, and they are nervous.  They are the most vulnerable at the polls.  There is an election next year.  They can do the math.  Unless the president can reverse his decline in the polls he will face a divided party, with some members joining Republicans in restoring the old moderate Democrat - Republican coalition that was powerful for decades.

August 17, 2009