WHISTLING DIXIE? - AT 9:42 A.M. ET:  There is a disconnect between the statements of administration officials on Iran and facts on the ground.  From The New York Times:

ERBIL, Iraq — Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said on Friday that he expected the United States and its allies to impose more stringent sanctions against Iran because the country had not followed through on promises it made in October to open its nuclear program to international inspection.

“I think you’re going to see some significant additional sanctions imposed by the international community, assuming that the Iranians don’t change course and agree to do the things that they signed up to do at the beginning of October,” Mr. Gates said during a question-and-answer session with American troops in Kirkuk, an oil-rich region north of Baghdad. He spoke before flying to Erbil, the capital of the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan.

Under a deadline imposed by President Obama, Iran has until the end of this year to show progress in engaging with the West to limit its nuclear ambitions. Mr. Gates’ comments were the first from a senior member of the Obama administration to say that tougher sanctions were now likely.

Well, actually Hillary Clinton has said pretty much the same thing.  The problem here is that, as administration officials speak, China and Russia are making it clear that they oppose any significant sanctions.  They both have veto power in the UN Security Council, which presumably would be asked to impose the sanctions.

True, we can act on our own, or in conjunction with real allies, but without Russia and China, sanctions will probably prove ineffective. 

Our ace in the hole may turn out to be Iranian dissidents.  It is possible that the Iranian hard-line government could be significantly weakened, or even toppled, by the street protests, which are growing by the month.  Please remember that it took many months to topple the Shah in 1979.  I'm told by Iranian experts that March is critical month, when the demonstrations may reach a new intensity.

If the mullahs can be weakened or swept away, that could, and probably would, have an effect on Iran's level of cooperation on nuclear matters.  Big if.

December 11, 2009