THE GUN IS SMOKING - AT 6:42 P.M. ET:  Once again a British paper has scooped the Americans.  The Times of London claims to have a document about Iran's nuclear program that surely is a smoking gun:

Confidential intelligence documents obtained by The Times show that Iran is working on testing a key final component of a nuclear bomb.

The notes, from Iran’s most sensitive military nuclear project, describe a four-year plan to test a neutron initiator, the component of a nuclear bomb that triggers an explosion. Foreign intelligence agencies date them to early 2007, four years after Iran was thought to have suspended its weapons programme.

An Asian intelligence source last week confirmed to The Times that his country also believed that weapons work was being carried out as recently as 2007 — specifically, work on a neutron initiator.

The technical document describes the use of a neutron source, uranium deuteride, which independent experts confirm has no possible civilian or military use other than in a nuclear weapon. Uranium deuteride is the material used in Pakistan’s bomb, from where Iran obtained its blueprint.

Be careful of those who deride reports like this, smugly citing our failure "to find WMDs in Iraq."  What many of these people won't admit is that while, yes, we didn't find stockpiles of WMD in Iraq, we did find the WMD programs, ready to be restarted once UN sanctions on Iraq were lifted.  The failure to point this out is one of the great scandals of the mainstream media, and a classic example of media bias.

The fallout could be explosive, especially in Washington, where it is likely to invite questions about President Obama’s groundbreaking outreach to Iran. The papers provide the first evidence which suggests that Iran has pursued weapons studies after 2003 and may actively be doing so today — if the four-year plan continued as envisaged.

A 2007 US National Intelligence Estimate concluded that weapons work was suspended in 2003 and officials said with “moderate confidence” that it had not resumed by mid-2007. Britain, Germany and France, however, believe that weapons work had already resumed by then.

The individuals who wrote that 2007 NIE should be hauled, not invited, before a Congressional committee to explain their "work," which seemed to be political science, rather than real science.  It won't be done.  Too many vested interests.

December 13, 2009