DEAD HEAT IN THE SUNSHINE STATE - AT 7:41 P.M. ET:  An intense competition is underway in Florida for the GOP Senate nomination, and polls show a dead heat.

Governor Charlie Crist was expected to have the nomination handed to him on a silver platter, or an orange platter, or whatever they use down there.  But Crist is seen as a moderate, and a conservative, Marco Rubio, has mounted a stiff challenge:

MIAMI (CBS4) A new poll has found that Florida Governor Charlie Crist's campaign for the U.S. Senate is currently in deep trouble. The new Rasmussen poll of likely GOP voters found Crist and his Republican opponent, Marco Rubio, are tied with 43 percent of the vote. This is a huge swing from just a few months ago when most experts believed Crist would win in a landslide.

While Crist's numbers have been in an almost free fall, Rubio's name recognition amongst Republicans has rapidly grown. The new poll found 34 percent of GOP voters now view Rubio "very favorably." In the same poll in August, Rubio's "very favorable" ratings were at 18 percent.

On the flip side, Crist's numbers have fallen off a cliff. Only 19 percent of likely GOP voters have a "very favorable" opinion of the governor. According to Rasmussen, that's a double-digit decline since August.

And a Rasmussen poll on the general election shows this:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida finds former state House Speaker Marco Rubio leading Democrat Kendrick Meek 49% to 35%. Governor Charlie

Crist leads Meek 42% to 36%.

For Rubio, those numbers are little changes since October and August.
Crist’s edge over Meek is down from a 12-point lead in October.

The reason for the difference is that 79% of conservatives support Rubio but only 62% say Crist can count on their vote. Twenty-four percent (24%) of conservatives say they’d prefer either a third party option or are undecided. If Crist were to win the nomination, it is likely that many of those voters would end up supporting him over Meek.

COMMENT:  This will have to play out further before we get a clear picture of either the Republican nomination contest or the general election.  Rubio is still not that well known, whereas Crist is the governor.  As people get to know Rubio, and his views, his numbers can change considerably.

Kendrick Meek is an African American congressman.  Race may well be affecting his numbers.  If the Democrats choose another candidate, the contest may well tighten considerably. 

December 16, 2009