RIGHT ON SCHEDULE - AT 10:35 A.M. ET:  We don't do predictions here, but we have discussed the probability that Iran, just before President Obama's deadline for progress in nuclear negotiations, would throw us a bone.  That deadline is less than two weeks away.  And sure enough...

Iran is prepared to review the P5+1's fuel exchange proposal, Iranian Foreign Minister Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said in an interview with the Iranian news agency published Saturday.

During the interview, Mottaki stated that Teheran recently offered to move nuclear fuel to the island of Kish, in the Persian Gulf. The proposal, he said, was a gesture of goodwill which "aimed to open a door for the other side."

In recent weeks, US officials warned that the window of opportunity for talks with Iran was rapidly closing.

And...

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Friday night said that Teheran was prepared to reach a nuclear fuel agreement with the West if the US and Western powers stopped threatening the Islamic republic, the French News Agency reported.

"Everything is possible ... but not in a climate where they threaten us. They have to change their vocabulary, in respect and legality," Ahmadinejad told AFP in an interview on the sidelines of the UN Climate Summit in Copenhagen.

"In this case we will say, very good you want to keep your word, in this case we are ready to sit down at the table to reach an agreement," the Iranian premier was quoted as saying.

COMMENT:  This is what is commonly known as a charm offensive.  It actually means nothing.  The Iranians haven't agreed to a thing, and any "agreement" they make with the West would have to be measured against their remarkable technological progress, which would continue.

However, the charm offensive may work.  It worked for the Soviet Union many times.  There are plenty of people who want to avoid any confrontation with Iran, and are perfectly prepared to put the blinders on to do so.  This latest Iranian "gesture" will give ammunition to Russia and China, who oppose severe sanctions on Tehran.  It will help those Europeans who are only interested in contracts with Iran.  And it may well help President Obama appease his left wing by giving him cover to extend negotiations and avoid serious decisions, something at which he is expert.

This reminds us of Churchill's notion that there are people who will feed the alligator in the hope of being eaten last.  I would imagine that these latest Iranian "gestures" will allow the appeasement crowd to open their cupboards and start sending the Twinkies to Tehran. 

December 19, 2009