ESCALATION IN TEHRAN – AT 10:25 A.M. ET:  New opposition demonstrations are planned, and a general strike has been called for early January.  The regime is responding, as Reuters reports:

An Iranian opposition website said on Thursday the government was moving troops and armored military vehicles to the capital on the day supporters of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi planned to hold a rally.

"Hundreds of military forces and tens of armoured vehicles ... are moving towards Tehran. Some of the vehicles are used for suppressing street riots," the Jaras website said.

The use of military vehicles is an ominous sign.  The situation in Iran is escalating.  No one knows exactly where the tipping point is, but it took many months of street demonstrations and confrontations to bring down the Shah in the late 70s. 

And President Obama's "deadline" for the regime to show progress in talks over its nuclear program expires midnight tonight.  There are press reports that the United States is trying to organize new sanctions, but it's difficult to find anyone who believes that genuinely tough sanctions will be agreed upon by the "international community," especially by Russia and China.  Even if some new sanctions are imposed, they're unlikely to sway the regime.

It appears that only regime change has the potential to ease Western concern about the Iranian nuclear program.  That may be a gift of the Iranian people to Obama in 2010.  It's undeserved, but we hope he gets it, just the same.  That will depend on the success of the democracy movement, which is getting far too little outside support.

December 31, 2009