PENNSYLVANIA – AT 8:49 A.M. ET:  Pennsylvania has been trending Democratic in recent elections, but the drift may be reversed this year.  A new Quinnipiac poll shows GOP Senate candidate Pat Toomey waltzing past new Democratic convert Arlen Specter:

Republican Pat Toomey is back on top 46 - 41 percent over Sen. Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania's seesaw U.S. Senate race, while Attorney General Tom Corbett, the leader for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, remains ahead of each of the three top Democratic contenders by double digits, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Gov. Ed Rendell's job approval rating is 45 - 45 percent, up from a negative 43 - 49 percent last month, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. But President Barack Obama's approval is a negative 45 - 49 percent, down from 49 - 46 percent.

Disapproval of the President's health care plan, 53 - 39 percent, is unchanged from a 52 - 37 percent disapproval March 2. Pennsylvania voters say 39 - 20 percent they are more likely to vote against a lawmaker who supported the health plan.

Toomey, a former congressman who is unchallenged for the GOP Senate nomination, trailed Specter 49 - 42 percent March 2. The two men have swapped the lead by small margins since last fall.

Toomey also leads U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, who is challenging Specter in the Democratic primary, by 42 - 34 percent. Specter leads Sestak for the Democratic nomination 53 - 32 percent in a Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday of likely Democratic primary voters, a different sample.

COMMENT:  So far, so good.  One of the GOP dreams is to pick up Pennsylvania in the 2012 presidential election.  Big state.  Mucho electoral votes.  Let's start thinking that way.  With Marco Rubio leading in Florida, that state will have a powerful GOP effort in 2012. 

Win.  I'm not interested in anything else for 2012.  No excuses.

April 8, 2010