ELECTIONS 2010 – AT 8:18 A.M. ET:  As Sinatra might have put it, leave us we should remember that the midterm elections take place nine months from today. 

Nine months is about 20 lifetimes in politics.  I am becoming increasingly concerned at the overconfidence I see on our side, the belief that gains will somehow be automatic.  We have to fight as if we're 20 points behind.  The economy can improve by November, even if the improvement is more cosmetic than real.  The president might pull off some kind of "tough" international action, making him seem more than he is, which isn't difficult.  The press will return to its 2008 role as national cheerleader for the left.  And Republicans themselves, who are hardly winning popularity contests as a party, might fail to come up with anything that brings in the actual, live voters.

Another alert:  Leave us also remember that today is primary day in Illinois.  It's a wonderful day, when shuttle services run to and from the cemeteries of Chicago, bringing citizens to the polls to exercise their sacred right.  Some come three and four times, out of a spirit of patriotism.

Both parties will run primaries for gubernatorial candidates.  The prison system in Illinois has been alerted to the prospect of still one more inmate.  An embarrassing number of recent Illinois governors have found themselves in stripes, making a political and fashion statement at the same time. 

The major interest, though, is in the Senate seat, up for grabs in November.  This is the seat that was held by Barack Obama, so the symbolic value is as great as the Kennedy seat recently won by our guy, Scott Brown, in Massachusetts.  The Republican primary winner tonight will almost certainly be Rep. Mark Kirk, a conservative with moderate overtones, as is Brown.  Political observers in Illinois believe he has a good chance to win the election.

Kirk's nomination will be a test of the maturity of Republicans.  Will they go all out for him, as they did for Scott Brown, even though he is not an Ivory-pure conservative, or will the true believers take their marbles and go home?  Kirk has been a fine congressman, highly respected by conservatives I know personally, even though they may not agree with him on every single point.  He deserves the Senate seat, in large measure because of his commitment to national defense.  Illinois is traditionally blue, as is Massachusetts.  It will be a fight, and a fight we must win.

We'll be reporting the returns tonight.

February 2,  2010