FLORIDA STUNNER – AT 9:48 A.M. ET:  The Florida Senate race is absolutely fascinating.  Voters will decide in November who will replace retiring Republican Senator Mel Martinez.  For the GOP, this is a critical "hold."

Months ago it was expected that Governor Charlie Crist, a moderate Republican who embraced Obama's stimulus package, would have an easy run at the Senate nomination.  But enter Marco Rubio, former speaker of the Florida House.  A conservative, a Cuban American, his campaign has caught fire.  Scott Rasmussen reports:

Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio has now jumped to a 12-point lead over Governor Charlie Crist in Florida’s Republican Primary race for the U.S. Senate.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely GOP Primary voters in the state finds Rubio leading Crist 49% to 37%. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and 11% are undecided.
The new numbers mark a stunning turnaround. Crist was the strong favorite when he first announced for the Senate seat, and Rubio was viewed as a long-shot challenger.

Rubio, who has excited a lot of interest among conservatives around the nation, will likely get the nomination.  And he has a great shot at winning the November election, where the Dem candidate will likely be Rep. Kendrick Meek, an African-American congressman:

Former House Speaker Marco Rubio now posts a 17-point lead on Meek, 49% to 32%. He had a 14-point lead on the Democrat in the previous survey and a similar margin in October. In a Rubio-Meek contest, six percent (6%) like another candidate, and 13% are undecided.

Again, surprises can happen.  Meek could be pressured to withdraw in favor of a stronger candidate, and Rubio can stumble.  We run as if we're 20 points behind.

February 2, 2010