LATEST ILLINOIS POLL – AT 9:35 A.M. ET:  From our favorite opinion analyst, Scott Rasmussen: 

Republican Mark Kirk holds a modest 46% to 40% lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias in the race for the Illinois Senate following Tuesday’s party primaries.

The first post-primary Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 telephone survey of the Kirk-Giannoulias race finds just four percent (4%) of likely voters in the state prefer some other candidate, while another 10% are undecided.

Among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties, the Republican holds a sizable 59% to 22% lead.

In December, Giannoulias was up by three points over Kirk. In October, the two men were tied at 41% each. In mid-August, Kirk held a modest 41% to 38% lead over Giannoulias.

And...

Kirk, a U.S. congressman, leads Giannoulias, Illinois’ current state treasurer, by a wide margin among male voters but trails his Democratic rival by 13 points among female voters.

COMMENT:  I'm baffled by the gender gap.  I hope future surveys try to explain it. 

The most striking figure is the independent vote, where Kirk leads 59% to 22%.  A Republican in Illinois, though, must overcome the large Democratic registration advantage, and the Democratic machine in Chicago, which churns out large numbers from voters living and dead. 

February 4, 2010