SOBRIETY – AT 10:12 A.M. ET:  It's a bit under the radar at the moment, but the Iranian government is running a major campaign to convince governments that it is close to a deal with the West on uranium enrichment.

Not so fast, creeps, says Secretary of Defense Bob Gates, one of the few real grownups in the Obama administration.  Realizing the danger of the Iranian fast hustle, Gates brings us back to reality:

ANKARA (Reuters) - Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Saturday he saw no sign a deal was close between Iran and Western powers on exchanging some of its low-enriched uranium (LEU) for higher-grade fuel, suggesting it was time to move forward with sanctions.

"I don't have the sense that we're close to an agreement," Gates told reporters in Ankara where he met Turkish leaders.

His comments stood in contrast to those by Iran's foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, who said on Friday he saw good prospects for clinching a deal with world powers on exchanging LEU for higher-grade fuel it can use in a reactor producing medical isotopes.

"If they are prepared to take up the original proposal of the P-5 plus one of delivering 1,200 kilograms of their low enriched uranium, all at once to an agreed party, I think there would be a response to that," he added, referring to the five permanent U.N. Security Council members plus Germany.

Gates said President Obama had taken unprecedented steps to engage with Iran, describing the response so far as "disappointing."

Hillary Clinton has said the same thing.  Disappointing.  So far the White House has stayed the negotiations course.  Also disappointing.

"But the reality is they have done nothing to reassure the international community that they are prepared to comply with the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) or stop their progress toward a nuclear weapon, and therefore I think various nations need to think about whether the time has come for a different tack," Gates added, in an apparent reference to sanctions.

But China, just yesterday, reaffirmed that it is opposed to new sanctions.  China has a veto at the Security Council, making UN action all but impossible.  The question now is whether major nations, acting outside the UN, can make sanctions happen.  That may be the diplomatic question of the year.

February 6, 2010