GOP GAINS DRAMATICALLY IN WAPO POLL – AT 8:13 A.M. ET:  Even a poll that generally tilts a bit toward the Dems picks up the national trend.  There'll be no happy sleigh riding at the White House today:

Republicans have significantly narrowed the gap with Democrats on who is trusted to deal with the country's problems and have sharply reduced several of President Obama's main political advantages, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll...

...Asked how they would vote in the November House elections, Americans split evenly -- 46 percent siding with the Democrats, 46 percent with the Republicans. As recently as four months ago, Democrats held a 51 to 39 percent advantage on this question.

Please note that the poll was taken among a random sampling of adults.  More precise polls, taken among likely voters, have tended recently to give the GOP an even larger advantage.

Obama's overall approval rating is holding steady, with 51 percent of respondents giving him positive marks and 46 percent rating him negatively.

See what I mean?  Other recent polls show Obama's approvals below the 50% "ship sinking" line.

A proper, cautionary note:

But there is about as much time between now and November as has elapsed since Obama held his June advantages. The president and his allies have started a new political offensive, seeking to rebound from the Democrats' loss of the Massachusetts Senate seat long held by the late Edward M. Kennedy and salvage their effort to enact comprehensive health-care reform.

The political story of the year, the march of the independents:

The question asking Americans how they plan to vote in House races, known as the generic congressional vote, is an imperfect predictor of elections, but the GOP gains here amplify the extent of the Democrats' slide since they won the House in 2006. Four years ago, Democrats led Republicans on this question by a wide margin.

Among independents who are registered to vote, it's now a 51 to 35 percent GOP lead on this question, a mirror image of the Democrats' advantage among this group of voters on the eve of the 2006 midterms.

COMMENT:  The dangers to our side:  Overconfidence, and a misreading of the polls.  The GOP isn't winning any popularity contests as a party.  And the political operatives in the White House haven't lost their right hands.  Further, the mainstream media will rejoin the Obama parade once the 2010 campaign really starts going.

We run as if we're 20 points behind.  It's the only way in volatile politics.

February 10, 2010