William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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POLITICAL SHOCKER – AT 6:14 P.M. ET:  It's all the buzz.  Senator Evan Bayh, moderate Democrat of Indiana, has decided not to run for reelection this year. 

Bayh comes from a prominent political family.  His father, Birch Bayh, served in the Senate until defeated by Dan Quayle. 

Bayh's announcement came as a surprise.  It opens a huge opportunity for Republicans in normally red Indiana to pick up a Democratic seat. 

Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh will not seek re-election this year, he announced Monday, a decision that hands Republicans a prime pickup opportunity in the middle of the country.

"After all these years, my passion for service to my fellow citizens is undiminished, but my desire to do so by serving in Congress has waned," Bayh said at a press conference in Indianapolis.

Bayh cited the lack of bipartisan comity as one of the main reasons for the decision. "There is too much partisanship and not enough progress -- too much narrow ideology and not enough practical problem-solving," he said. "Even at a time of enormous challenge, the peoples' business is not being done." He specifically cited the recent vote that killed the creation of a debt commission as evidence of the partisan gridlock.

Bayh was first elected to the Senate in 1998 and was re-elected easily in 2004. National Republicans had recruited former Sen. Dan Coats to challenge Bayh in 2010 although polling suggested Bayh began the race with a 20-point edge. He also had $13 million in the bank at the end of the year.

COMMENT:  Republicans had already recruited former Senator Dan Coats to run against Bayh, but Coats carries some embarrassing baggage.  He's been out of the state for years, and some of his lobbying work in Washington could raise questions.  Stories are circulating – and we stress that these are unproved – that he's had associations with Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez. 

There are no obvious Democratic replacements for Bayh on the ballot.  Republicans would almost have to work to lose this one, but they've been successful at that effort before, so don't mark your scorecard just yet. 

February 15,  2010