GOP HOUSE PROSPECTS – AT 8:15 A.M. ET:  The prospects seem to get better and better, as The Politico reports:

Highlighting the GOP’s continued momentum, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report made ratings changes in 25 House races Thursday, all of which favor Republican candidates. The downgrading of Democratic prospects in the races paints an increasingly promising picture for GOP chances of taking over the House next year.

The respected political publication now rates 54 Democratic-held seats in the most highly competitive category — with 26 of them either pure tossups or favoring the Republican candidate. The publication rates 95 Democratic seats in total as potentially vulnerable — over one-third of the entire caucus.

Republicans need to pick up a net of 40 seats to win back control of the House. According to the Cook ratings, the GOP has only six seats that are at risk of flipping.

The list of potentially vulnerable Democrats, according to the Cook Report, includes members who have been virtually untouchable in the past, including Rep. Dave Obey (D-Wis.), the powerful chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, and Rep. Nick Rahall, the chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee, who hasn’t faced a competitive race since 1990.

“At this rate, Democrats are likely to lose at least 25-35 seats in the House and would have to bend the current trajectory of the cycle to hold onto their House majority,” wrote Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman.

COMMENT:  Comforting news that will make for a better weekend.  However, Charles Krauthammer warned several days ago that the current Republican momentum may not last, and is subject to any number of derailers.  The economy can improve.  An international crisis may produce the "rally 'round the president" effect.  The Republicans may fail to exploit their advantage.  Dissident groups on the right may run third-party candidates, effectively electing Democrats.

So, we say again, we have to run as if we're 20 points behind.

February 19,  2010