DEFENDING RASMUSSEN – AT 6:25 P.M. ET:  Bill Kristol, in the Weekly Standard, comes to the defense of pollster Scott Rasmussen, who's under attack by liberal because his polls tend to show Obama at a lower point than do other surveys:

Generally, because Rasmussen has a likely voter universe and polls so much, he seems to catch trends earlier -- and other polls eventually move toward him. If you assume likely voters pay more attention to politics and tend to move first, paying attention to them will allow you to see trends early. That’s certainly been the case on Obama’s job approval, where Rasmussen saw the downturn before everyone else. Rasmussen still has Obama’s approval about 5 percentage points lower than other surveys, and that’s due to his universe consisting only of likely voters. And while it’s legitimate to say that it’s as useful to know the approval rating of the president among all Americans as among likely voters, if you’re interested in the 2010 results, history would suggest the likely voter numbers are more likely to be helpful.

And that’s why serious people in Washington pay attention to Rasmussen’s polls.

COMMENT:  Eventually liberals may get the message.  But their response, if history informs us, may be irresponsible.  If the issue is "likely voters," they may reason, "we have to turn more of our stay-at-home supporters in to voters."  They may attempt a number of tricks, not all of which may be ethical, as we've seen from ACORN's "work" in large cities.  And remember that Chicago politicians are running the White House.  In Chicago, Democratic voters never die.  They just reside in cemeteries and vote on election day.

January 3, 2009