WELL, AS WE WERE SAYING – AT 6:51 P.M. ET:  Our first item this morning reported a new Public Policy Polling survey showing GOP challenger Scott Brown a point ahead of Dem darling Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate race, which will end in a special election a week from Tuesday.

Now, though, comes the party-pooping Boston Globe, owned by the much bigger party-pooping New York Times, with another poll showing a dramatically different result:

Democrat Martha Coakley, buoyed by her durable statewide popularity, enjoys a solid, 15-percentage-point lead over Republican rival Scott Brown as the race for US Senate enters the homestretch, according to a new Boston Globe poll of likely voters.

Half of voters surveyed said they would pick Coakley, the attorney general, if the election were held today, compared with 35 percent who would pick Brown. Nine percent were undecided, and a third candidate in the race, independent Joseph L. Kennedy, received 5 percent.

The Globe is one messenger I'd like to shoot.

I'm speculating here, but I'm guessing that both polls are wrong, and that the truth lies somewhere in-between.  Rasmussen recently had Coakley nine points ahead.  I'd imagine that's a bit closer to reality.  An examination of the methodology and dates shows that the poll showing a dead heat was taken a few days later than the Boston Globe survey, and had a larger sample than the Globe's. 

As we said this morning, a Brown victory is statistically unlikely in overwhelmingly Democratic Massachusetts.  But miracles can happen.  The election is still nine days away.

January 10, 2010