MASSACHUSETTS – AT 8:15 A.M. ET:  The Senate race in Massachusetts, ending with the election this Tuesday, is the hottest special election in memory.  It shouldn't even be close in this bluest of blue states, but it's more than close.

We reported, in our final item last night, that the respected Norfolk University poll now shows GOP fireball Scott Brown four points ahead of Democratic disaster Martha Coakley.  Coakley, who apparently believes that she owns the seat and should not have to stoop to campaigning among the peasantry, has stepped up her efforts and is running a relentless series of attack ads.

Byron York reports for the Washington Examiner:

Here in Massachusetts, as well as in Washington, a growing sense of gloom is setting in among Democrats about the fortunes of Democratic Senate candidate Martha Coakley. "I have heard that in the last two days the bottom has fallen out of her poll numbers," says one well-connected Democratic strategist. In her own polling, Coakley is said to be around five points behind Republican Scott Brown. "If she's not six or eight ahead going into the election, all the intensity is on the other side in terms of turnout," the Democrat says. "So right now, she is destined to lose."

Brown's trajectory has been spectacular.  Already the Dem spin machine is operating:

Given those numbers, some Democrats, eager to distance Obama from any electoral failure, are beginning to compare Coakley to Creigh Deeds, the losing Democratic candidate in the Virginia governor's race last year. Deeds ran such a lackluster campaign, Democrats say, that his defeat could be solely attributed to his own shortcomings, and should not be seen as a referendum on President Obama's policies or those of the national Democratic party.

Of course not.  Next, they'll be blaming BUSH (!!).  And didn't Dick Cheney once spend a night in Massachusetts?

With the election still four days away, Democrats are still hoping that "something could happen" to change the dynamics of the race. But until that thing happens, the situation as it exists today explains Barack Obama's decision not to travel to Massachusetts to campaign for Coakley.

Coakley has already been assigned her place under the bus.

COMMENT:  A word of caution.  The election is Tuesday, not today.  Elections are not public opinion polls.  There is no margin of error.  This is far from being in the bag, and we don't know the impact of some last-minute smear.  This is not a time for overconfidence, as President Dewey might tell us from the grave. 

In fact, a new poll by a Democratic firm shows Coakley comfortably ahead, but apparently is not being taken that seriously.

We'll await Rasmussen's final word, and, most important, the word of the voters on Tuesday.  The Rothenberg Political Report rates the race a toss-up, and so should we.

January 15,  2010