YIKES! – AT 7:49 P.M. ET:  We only have one late Massachusetts poll, by MRG and InsideMedford.com.  MRG is a respected firm.  I don't know anything about its partner.  The poll, taken late Friday, shows the following:

A poll conducted by the Merriman River Group (MRG) and InsideMedford.com indicates that Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 50.8% – 41.2% in the contest to fill the seat of the late Senator Ted Kennedy. Liberty Party candidate Joe Kennedy pulls in just 1.8% support, while 6.2% of voters are still not sure. Brown and Coakley both have most of their supporters locked in. 98% of both candidate’s supporters say they are definitely or probably going to vote for their candidate. In contrast, 22% of Kennedy’s supporters are just leaning toward him, suggesting that Brown and Coakley may both want to take aim at swaying those voters.

That's essentially a ten-point lead for Brown.  However, the sample of likely voters was relatively small. 

MRG surveyed 565 likely voters between 5:00 P.M. and 8:45 P.M. on January 15, 2010 using touch-tone polling technology. The margin of error is +/– 4.1%. Some columns do not sum to 100% due to rounding.

Encouraging.  But we'll know in 48 hours.

January 17, 2010