DEMOCRATS FRIED, SAYS COOK – AT 9:43 A.M. ET:  Veteran political analyst Charlie Cook, writing in National Journal, has no good news for the Democrats:

Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown's victory in Tuesday's special election for the Senate should serve as an air-raid siren for the Democratic Party. Warnings began sounding last summer, and by now it seems impossible for Democrats to deny that something has gone terribly wrong for their party. In the year since President Obama's inauguration, their celebration has turned into a nightmare.

Joy to the world.

For Democrats, the first step toward recovery is admitting they have a problem: Over the past 12 months, they have badly damaged their brand.

Is there a Liberals Anonymous?  Do you get up and say, "I'm Martha, I'm a liberal, and I want to stop"?

On recent GOP victories:

These successful Republican candidates were able to take advantage of the vise grip in which Obama and his party are caught. A large group of Americans are upset that the president and congressional Democrats have focused so much on health care and climate change, seemingly at the expense of the economy and jobs. Another group is furious about the expansion in the size, scope, and reach of the federal government and the explosive growth of federal spending over the last year, albeit on top of an orgy of deficit spending under President Bush and the GOP majority. These two forces are squeezing Obama and his fellow Democrats from opposite directions, doing grave damage to him and his party.

And national defense is a factor as well.  Any Democrats interested?

To the extent that they show up, Democratic voters can generally be counted upon to support their party's candidates this year, just as Republican voters can be expected to toe the line for GOP candidates, assuming that "tea party" supporters don't nominate some unelectable ones.

But independent voters are the largest voting bloc in Massachusetts, as they are nationally. And independents showed on Tuesday that they have little patience left for Democrats. Of course, Democrats' woes are not limited to the Bay State. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, conducted January 10-14, shows the two parties running even at 41 percent each in the generic congressional ballot test, a bad result for Democrats because the gauge tends to tilt about 3 points in their favor. Even more worrisome for them is that among voters with the highest interest, those most likely to turn out, Republicans hold a huge 15-point lead, 50 percent to 35 percent.

Finally...

Any Democrat with a pulse ought to be extremely alarmed by now: The same wave of independent voters that swept away the GOP's majorities in the House and Senate in 2006 could do the same to Democrats, at least in the House, this November 2nd.

COMMENT:  Harry Reid's pulse has always been a question mark.

One problem facing the Dems is that the party's intellectual leaders have contempt for the very people they claim to champion.  It's been a problem since the Eugene McCarthy movement of 1968.  Unless that changes, the party can look forward to a hostile army of voters, most of them labeled "independent."

January 22, 2010