OBAMA'S FUTURE – AT 8:07 A.M. ET:  As the pundit class contemplates President Obama's future, the Gallup organization examines the past, and what Mr. Obama might have to face in his second year in office:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Most of the last eight elected U.S. presidents, starting with Dwight Eisenhower, saw their approval rating drop in the second year of their presidency -- on average by five percentage points. According to Gallup historical data, only George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush avoided a second-year drop; Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan experienced the greatest declines in public approval from year one to year two.

And...

Barack Obama begins the second year of his presidency Wednesday after averaging 57% job approval during his first year in office. But his recent approval ratings have generally hovered around the 50% mark, with his fourth quarter average (spanning Oct. 20 through Jan. 19) at 51%.

This decline in Obama's approval rating over the first year of his presidency is not an auspicious sign for his second year, based on historical patterns in Gallup's data. The presidents who experienced the greatest declines in support from their first to second year in office had already shown clear signs of decay over the course of their first years in office (based on a comparison of their first and last quarterly approval averages of their first year in office).

And...

Thus, it appears that if significant momentum in either direction is established over the course of a president's first year in office, that momentum has carried over into the second year. However, two of the presidents who had difficult second years -- namely, Truman and Reagan -- were able reverse that momentum in time to win re-election.

The bottom line for this year:

The obvious political peril for Obama -- as was the case for Truman, Carter, Reagan, and Clinton -- is that his second year coincides with midterm congressional elections. When presidents' approval ratings have been below 50% in a midterm election year, their party has tended to suffer heavier seat losses.

COMMENT:  One key question not discussed by Gallup is whether the president can control his own party.  A good chunk of that party apparently expected Obama to lead a chant of "Workers of the world unite, you have nothing to lose but your internal combustion engines."  He hasn't quite gotten to that, and there is as much disenchantment on the left as there is with the nation's moderates, although for different reasons.  The California kamikazes – who provide a great case for interning some Americans in wartime – are already urging Obama to lurch further left and charge into the minefields.

So, going into midterms, an increasingly unpopular president is leading an increasingly dissatisfied party whose base tends to show up only when it is emotionally and spiritually moved.  If Republicans play it right – and that's a big if – 2010 can be a year when Scott Brown of Massachusetts led one of the greatest political comebacks in modern history. 

January 22,  2010