POLITICAL STUNNER – AT 8:51 A.M. ET:  The Rothenberg Political Report is one of the most respected political sources in Washington.  This morning it published its latest judgments, reinforcing the New York Times story we quoted just below, and adding some juicy details:

After a stunning GOP Senate win in Massachusetts and a slew of new polls showing many Democratic incumbents in trouble, it’s hard to argue with the obvious: the Republicans unquestionably have momentum as 2010 begins.

We are adding a dozen new seats to our list of districts “in play” – all of them currently held by Democrats. In addition, we have moved 16 districts within our list – two held by the GOP and the rest currently represented by a Democrat. All of the moves benefit the GOP, either because Republican districts now look safer or Democratic districts appear more vulnerable.

Given that we expect more Democratic retirements in the next few months and anticipate that more Democratic-held districts will increase in vulnerability between now and the fall, we are raising our target for GOP gains to 24 to 28 seats, with higher Republican gains possible. Of course, changes in the national mood between now and November could also benefit Democrats.

COMMENT:  A word of caution:  Districts and states are fought one by one by one.  They're not fought as a mass.  Many Americans find the Republican Party unattractive because, let's face it, many of its leaders would not win a political beauty contest, or any other kind.  GOP congressional leaders hold news conferences, and the image is one of tired white guys.  No women.  No minorities.  Scott Brown showed that an attractive candidate, articulate and determined, can change that picture.  He's a white guy, but he's certainly not tired or average.

The party's success in November will be decided heavily by the quality of the candidates it recruits.  It will also be decided by its ability to avoid any hint of extremism or nuttiness.  These are serious times.  People want real answers, not ideological readings.

January 25, 2010