DOES NANCY HAVE THE VOTES? – AT 7:30 P.M. ET:  President Obama is going off to Indonesia, where he spent part of his youth, late next week.  (Remember when we couldn't discuss this during the campaign because it was "racist"?)  Nancy Pelosi would love to give him a going-away present of a health-care bill.  But does she have the votes?  Michael Barone has his doubts:

Are there enough votes in the House to pass the Senate's health-care bill? As of today, it's clear there aren't...Speaker Nancy Pelosi has indeed shown mastery at amassing majorities. But it's hard to see how she'll do so on this one. The arithmetic as I see it doesn't add up.

And...

The House bill included an amendment prohibiting funding of abortions sponsored by Michigan Democrat Bart Stupak. The Senate bill did not. Mr. Stupak says he and 10 to 12 other members won't vote for the Senate bill for that reason...

...Mrs. Pelosi may have some votes in reserve—members who would have voted yes if she needed them in November and would do so again. But we can be pretty sure she doesn't have more than 10...

And...

Other Democrats who voted yes seem to be wavering. "I don't think reconciliation is a good idea," Indiana's Baron Hill was quoted recently in Bloomberg News. New York's Michael Arcuri says he's a no for now. "There would have to be some dramatic changes in it for me to change my position," he recently told the Utica Observer-Dispatch.

"I think we can do better," California's Dennis Cardoza told the New York Times last week.

There are other, deeper problems with the Democrats' math:

There's a more fundamental problem for the Democratic leadership: Their majority is not as strong as their 253-178 margin suggests.

A Democratic House majority tends to have fewer members with safe seats than a Republican majority.

...more than 40 House Democrats represent districts which John McCain carried. Most voted no in November and would presumably be hurt by switching to yes now. Moreover, Mr. Obama's job approval now hovers around 48%, five points lower than his winning percentage in 2008. His approval on health care is even lower.

Another 32 House Democrats represent districts where Mr. Obama won between 50% and 54% of the vote, and where his approval is likely to be running under 50% now. That leaves just 176 House Democrats from districts where Mr. Obama's approval rating is not, to borrow a real-estate term, under water. That's 40 votes less than the 216 needed.

Finally...

The Democrats' struggle to get 216 votes is high stakes poker.

COMMENT:  This is real political drama.  We're talking about one sixth of the nation's economy, and the central issue for President Obama.  If Obama can't get this through, he'll be a dramatically weakened president.  But if he does get it through, he'll be doing it against the will of the American people, as shown in poll after poll. 

Obama may well be in a no-win situation, something he didn't expect on election night, 2008.  My how the flighty have fallen.

March 11, 2010