William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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STARTLING – AT 7:44 A.M. ET:  We have a historic week coming up.  The president is demanding that Congress pass his health-care plan by March 18th, a week from today, essentially placing one sixth of the economy under federal control.

Many in Congress, in the president's own party, are resisting, some over the abortion issue, others over cost.  And some, zombie-like, oppose the president's plan because it isn't radical enough. Calming pills are on the way.

The bottom line, though, is that many Democrats fear that if they vote for the plan, their congressional careers will be terminated in November.  And they don't want to go back to the family business.  There is a widespread feeling in Washington that, if the president can't get the plan passed within the next week, it will eventually be lost, as members of Congress will be going home during the winter recess and will face angry constituents.

There is good reason for the Dems to have political worries, as The Politico reports:

The anti-reform business coalition StartOver put out some startling poll numbers today on what reform means to people in the districts of 11 vulnerable House Democrats. The move coincides with an effort by Senate Republicans to scare moderate Dems into voting against the bill, especially now that Senate Majority Leader Reid has the votes to pass a reconciliation bill.

Here are some of the findings.  We point out that the survey, taken among likely voters, was conducted by the Republican polling firm, Tarrance Group:

IN-9 Baron Hill
76% worry the health bill will raise their taxes.
87% say it’s very or somewhat likely that his vote will matter in November.
31% favor the health bill while 52% oppose.

PA-4 Jason Altmire
81% worry the health bill will raise their taxes.
93% say it’s very or somewhat likely that his vote will matter in November.
30% favor health bill while 58% oppose.
29% favor use of reconciliation 60% oppose

NJ-3 John Adler
80% worry the health bill will raise their taxes.
90% say it’s very or somewhat likely that his vote will matter in November.
34% favor the health bill while 57% oppose.

NV-3 Dina Titus
73% worry the health bill will raise their taxes.
89% say it’s very or somewhat likely that his vote will matter in November.
40% favor the health bill while 58% oppose.

NY-24 Michael Arcuri
77% worry the health bill will raise their taxes.
88% say it’s very or somewhat likely that his vote will matter in November.
32% favor the health bill while 53% oppose.

Please note that support for the president's bill doesn't go above 40% in any of the districts polled.  That pattern also prevails among the remainder reported in the full story.

This will be a spectacularly important week in the modern history of Congress.  The Japanese had their kamikaze.  The Democrats have their Barack Obama.  The difference is that the kamikaze flew themselves and perished.  Obama is sending others to do the same job.

March 11,  2010