EGYPT, DAY 7 – AT 8:14 A.M. ET:  Demonstrations continue in Egyptian cities.  One CNN reporter says that support for the protesters is increasing rather than waning, although we have no objective evidence of that.

It is the 8th day – tomorrow – that may be decisive.  There are calls from opposition leaders for a million-person turnout.  (It's already being called, by some American journalists, the "million-man march.")

There is still no definitive word on which political force is benefiting most from the remarkable disruptions in Egypt.  The military, the country's most powerful institution, and highly revered, is playing it very cautiously.  It is in the streets, but not firing on protesters.

The position of the United States, as enunciated by Secretary Clinton, appears to be this:  On the one hand, we want to be seen as endorsing democratic reforms.  On the other, we are fearful that if we abandon Mubarak too quickly, we will see a repeat of the Iran scenario of the 1970s – when Jimmah ("I'm the best ex-president evah") Carter cut off the Shah, an old American ally, to embrace the Iranian revolution, a revolution that made matters much worse for the Iranian people and for us.  We also are conscious of charges that Americans, in a crisis, abandons its friends. 

Daniel Kurtzer, the American diplomat who has been ambassador to both Egypt and Israel, appeared on CNN this morning to point out something that needs emphasizing:  While there are thousands of people marching in Egyptian streets, there are 85 million people in Egypt, and much of the Egyptian population has historically chosen stability over reform.  We really have no way of knowing what the majority in Egypt really believes right now.

Indeed, reports in the Israeli press say that the government of Benjamin Netanyahu is urging other nations to go easy on Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who clings to power, noting the importance of a stable Egypt. 

Mubarak shows no signs of stepping down.  He has introduced new cabinet ministers to the Egyptian people on television, and is being photographed directing security operations. 

Bottom line:  Many pictures, a torrent of words, little clarity.  If the opposition can truly put a million people in the streets tomorrow, everything may change.

January 31, 2011