WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 9:54 A.M. ET:  A new poll shows the president losing the bounce he received late last year, but don't underestimate him.  From The Politico:

Backsliding from his approval-ratings surge at the beginning of the year, President Barack Obama is breaking even in a poll of registered voters released Thursday.

The president’s approval ratings are split at 46 percent in a new Quinnipiac University poll as voters express substantial disdain for how the Obama administration is handling policy issues including federal spending and taxes.

In January, Obama’s approval in the Quinnipiac survey was at 48 percent and his disapproval was at 44 percent. Still, he is doing slightly better than he was just a few months ago in November, when his disapproval rating was at an all-time low of 49 percent and his approval was at 44 percent.

But even as Obama struggles to gain support for his approaches to the issues, 74 percent of voters said they personally like the president. Forty-one percent of those surveyed said they like him personally and like his policies, while 33 percent said they like him personally but don’t like his policies. Just 1 percent said they like Obama’s policies but not him, and 19 percent said they don’t like him or his policies.

By comparison, Rasmussen reports today that 45% of Americans approve of the president's performance, while 54% disapprove.  Rasmussen has generally registered higher disapproval ratings for Obama than other polls.

COMMENT:  While these numbers are not great for the president, they aren't all that bad.  The president's 2012 situation is far from desperate.  If the GOP nominates a terrific candidate in that year, he (or she) could give Obama quite a difficult time.  But if the Republicans nominate a so-so candidate, it shouln't be too difficult for Obama, a much better candidate than he is a president, to pull up to 50%, and a narrow victory. 

The Republicans need some old-fashioned excitement.  We have argued here before that they should look behind the obvious candidates, something the party has, historically, been reluctant to do.  Traditionally, Republicans nominate the guy who's next in line, living or dead.

March 3, 2011