WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 9:32 A.M. ET: Scott Rasmussen reports this morning that the presidential race remains extremely close, with Obama slightly ahead but Romney holding his own:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows President Obama earning 47% of the vote, while likely Republican nominee Mitt Romney picks up support from 45%. Four percent (4%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another three percent (3%) are undecided...
...Over the past six weeks, Obama’s support has been within two points of 45% every single day. During that same time period, Romney has been within three points of 46% every day. Considering that the polling has a 3-percentage point margin of error, these numbers reflect remarkable stability and a very close race. See tracking history.
The race is also close in key battleground states. Obama leads by four in Ohio. Romney is up two in North Carolina and up by just a single point in both Virginia and Florida.
That is encouraging for Romney. It's not good in Ohio, which every successful GOP candidate for president in recent history has won, but that can be turned around. Romney's lead, although slim, in Virginia and Florida, could give Mitt victory in two major states that Obama carried in 2008.
But it's going to be very tough.
A president’s Job Approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s Job Approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty percent (50%) at least somewhat disapprove.
COMMENT: That's a dramatic improvement for Obama in recent weeks. He usually drifted around 46-47% approval in the Rasmussen poll, with about 53% disapproving. This is probably based somewhat on his campaigning, and his shoring up his support in his base. It certainly couldn't be based on performance in office, because there's been so little.
This race will get very bitter.
April 28, 2012