PRESIDENTIAL POLL UPDATE – AT 11:03 A.M. ET:  Readers know that we've been following closely the weird presidential polling results of the past week, showing a six-point drop for Romney in the Rasmussen tracker, but a gain for Romney in the Gallup tracker.

We knew that, eventually, Scott Rasmussen would explain the results, and he does this morning, along with publishing a new tracker showing Romney retaking the lead:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 44% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 43%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

Today’s update matches the president’s lowest level of support since May. Yesterday was the lowest level of support for Romney since March. On a combined basis, today shows the lowest level of combined support for the two major party candidates since January 27.

Sometimes it is helpful to look at the numbers on a full-week basis rather than day-to-day basis. This eliminates some statistical noise and gives a broader perspective on the race. Doing so gives a sense of how little the race has changed over the past two months. In six of the past eight weeks, Romney has been ahead by one or two points. Once he had a larger lead, and once the candidates were tied.

Obama, however, retains a slight lead in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. This includes new numbers from Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio.

COMMENT:  And that's what we would have guessed – that the swings we saw last week were more a question of statistical noise than actual results.  We always note that these polls have a margin of error.

Perhaps there are two outstanding takeaways from these results:  First, Obama cannot get out of the mid-forties.  For an incumbent president, that is very bad news.  But, second, Romney cannot break through.  He is not a magnetic candidate, a "must have" candidate. 

Obama's lead in the electoral college is fragile, but it's a lead.  That's where the election is won.

Jimmy Carter also had a lead during most of the 1980 race, but he was facing Ronald Reagan, a magnetic candidate, who soared ahead in the final weeks. 

I'm guessing that the debates will make a major difference, with the candidates on the same stage.  I'm also guessing that some impossible-to-predict event, especially in foreign policy, could tilt the results of the election.  But these are just guesses.

Americans, I think, are more engaged than many pundits believe.  They just haven't seen much to sway them so far.  It will be intriguing to see if the two conventions, held over the next two weeks, show any change in the polling.

August 20, 2012