LET'S HOPE FOR A PERFECT RECORD – AT 9:14 A.M. ET: There are two chaps at the University of Colorado who predict presidential elections based on a model that they developed. They've never been wrong eight times out. Here is their prediction for this year:
DENVER — A University of Colorado economic model that has correctly predicted the last eight presidential elections shows Mitt Romney emerging as the victor in 2012.
Ken Bickers, professor of political science at the University of Colorado Boulder, and Michael Berry, political science professor at the University of Colorado Denver, announced Wednesday that their state-by-state analysis shows the Republican capturing a majority of electoral votes.
"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," said Mr. Bickers, who also serves as director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
The results show President Obama winning 218 votes in the Electoral College, well short of the 270 required for victory. While the study focuses on the electoral vote, the professors also predict that Mr. Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Mr. Obama's 47.1 percent when considering only the two major political parties.
The analysis factors in a host of economic data, including state and national unemployment figures and changes in real per capita income.
"What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida,” Mr. Bickers said.
COMMENT: In the eloquent words of the New Jersey political experts I consult, leave us we should hope these boys are right. Polling in recent days – and polling at this stage is useful primarily for detecting trends – has shown some small movement toward Romney, especially in the swing states that the professors mention.
One caveat: The Chicago pols behind Obama will do anything to win. Whole cemeteries have been opened on election day in Chicago, with the residents voting multiple times. And we have never had a president who has benefited as much from press bias as we do now.
But I'm guardedly optimistic that the Colorado model will hold up, and that we will smile on January 20th.
August 23, 2012