IRAN ON THE BRINK –  AT 8:12 A.M. ET:  While we're fighting an election, the confrontation with Iran is still building.  New sanctions are going into effect.  They're hurting the Iranian economy.  But are they having the desired effect?  The New York Times provides a surprisingly clear summary of where we are, and aren't:

WASHINGTON — As the Obama administration and its European allies toughened economic sanctions against Iran on Monday — blocking its access to the world financial system and undermining its critical oil and gas industry — officials on both sides of the Atlantic acknowledge that their last-ditch effort has only a limited chance of persuading Tehran to abandon what the West fears is its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

That leaves open this critical question: And then what?

While the United States and Israel have not taken military options off the table, pursuing them is unpalatable, at least for now. Several American and European officials say privately that the most attainable outcome for the West could be for Iran to maintain the knowledge and technology necessary to build a nuclear weapon while stopping short of doing so. That would allow it to assert its sovereignty and save face after years of diplomatic tensions.

While that might seem to be a big concession on the part of the United States, Iran would first have to make even bigger ones: demonstrate that it could be trusted and drop its veil of secrecy so that inspectors could verify that its nuclear work was peaceful, steps Iran has resisted.

COMMENT:  The fact is that we've made, essentially, no progress in all the years of discussing the Iranian nuclear program.  There may well be new talks with Iran – talks are a great stalling tactic – but Iran is relentlessly pursuing nuclear development.  It would be utterly reckless to assume that its intentions are peaceful.

President Obama assures us that we will prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.  How? 

The best thing that could happen would be regime change.  We had a chance at that in 2009 when democracy demonstrators took to the streets in a preview of the "Arab spring," but the president of the United States couldn't be bothered to give them any encouragement.  Now the democracy movement seems utterly suppressed.

This will be the year of Iran in foreign policy.  It's now widely believed that an Iranian bomb will change the whole balance of the region.  We have not found an answer short of a massive military strike, and we recognize the great instability such a strike would bring.

For Americans a key question is this:  Will Obama pull an October surprise with Iran?  Military action of some kind, even a naval blockade, could guarantee his re-election, although he'd lose Michael Moore's vote. 

And we must ask this question:  How will events in Syria affect Iran's nuclear program?  Syria is Iran's strongest Arab ally.  If the Syrian regime collapses, will the Iranian mullahs be frightened enough to start making compromises?  Or will they do something crazy and rash to prove their virility? 

Dull year, isn't it?  And we're cutting our defenses.

January 25, 2012