THE CAMPAIGN – AT 8:37 A.M. ET:  It is widely assumed that President Obama had a very bad week last week.  Everything seemed to go wrong.  Bill Clinton seemed to needle him, always pulling back the needle, but leaving the wound.  Grown-up Senator Dianne Feinstein of California, a Democrat, ripped the Obamans on national-security leaks.  Economic numbers were terrible.  And the president appeared at a hastily called news conference and performed like a football player trying to catch a ball coated with cooking grease.  Everything seemed to slip out of the president's hands.

But a word of caution to the politically wise:  Politics runs by the calendar.  An old political wag once noted that stories on polls often began with the words, "If the election were held today..."  The wag commented, "If the election were held today...I'd be very surprised."

The election is more than four and a half months away.  We don't even know the name of the GOP vice-presidential candidate yet.  Four and a half months is 10 lifetimes in politics, maybe more.  So take each event in the context of time.  So far, our side is doing pretty well, helped by the administration's bumbling handling of the economy.  But Obama has three powerful things going for him:  1) the power of the presidency, which can launch an October surprise, possibly through military action somewhere; 2) a base, part of which will never leave him for cultural reasons; 3) press bias, which so far has been as bad, or worse, than in 2008.  In a very close election, that can make the difference, especially in the last week.

It is early.  It's a long fight, and it will be a difficult and bitter one.

June 11,  2012