THE MORNING AFTER – AT 8:20 A.M. ET:  I assume we'll start getting early polls today and tomorrow on the public's reaction to the Obamacare decision.   Other polls, the ones that track over three days, won't be available until early next week.

Take care to watch the way polling questions are phrased.  It wasn't only Obama who won a victory yesterday in the Supreme Court, it was the mainstream media, whose commitment to Obama is as great this year as in 2008.  As I noted last night, some of the behavior of TV "journalists" was disgraceful.  Some news organizations have their own polling operations (or contract for them), and the phrasing of the question is key to a poll.

With the Supreme Court decision, provisions of the Obamacare law will start to kick in.  The law was artfully written so the arrival of "benefits" precedes the increased costs.  And there's a rule of thumb in politics:  Once benefits are given, they're almost impossible to remove.  If you don't believe that, look at Europe, where countries that desperately need austerity programs are being resisted by populations that enjoy their benefits.

The benefits here will kick in, and then the Dems will shift the focus to taxing certain groups more to pay for them.  So what if companies leave because of high taxation.  Hey, who needs those greedy capitalists.  Right?

And what of Mitt Romney?  He has now correctly pledged to get rid of Obamacare through legislative action once he's elected.  But he has a trap waiting for him, eagerly pointed out by liberal journalists.  From the Washington Post:

“The most effective argument for Romney is that this is a massive tax increase that will impact hardworking Americans,” said GOP strategist Ron Bonjean, who worked for a number of Republican leaders on Capitol Hill. “By adding the health-care tax to economic hardships people are feeling, it will quickly become a rallying cry to win over independents in battleground states.”

Romney’s history, however, may make it difficult for him to capi­tal­ize on that argument.

The health-care system that he put into place as Massachusetts governor — which was a model for the federal law — included a mandate with a similar penalty for noncompliance.

At the time, Romney also denied that it was a tax, preferring instead to refer to it as a “fee” or an “incentive.”

Nonetheless, the court’s ruling will encourage Republicans to rally around their presumed nominee, despite their misgivings about some of the more moderate aspects of his record, including the Massachusetts health-care law.

“Politically, this was not a bad result for Governor Romney,” said Steve Schmidt, who was a top strategist for 2008 GOP nominee John McCain (R-Ariz.). “There is no chance there will be a dissipation of intensity in the Republican base. It guarantees a united and intense Republican base.”

Rep. Phil Gingrey (R-Ga.) went so far as to predict on CNN: “This is going to elect Mitt Romney the 45th president of the United States.”

COMMENT:  Well, we'll see.  We certainly hope so.  But as Mr. Hardy used to say, it's a "fine mess" the Court has gotten us into.  Or maybe it was Mr. Laurel.  Some reader will know.

June 29,  2012