WAS IT AN OUTLIER? – AT 10:15 A.M. ET:  That's the question being asked about yesterday's stunning Rasmussen poll result showing Mitt Romney at 50%, and President Obama at 43%. 

Impossible, some said.  Must be a mistake.  But a check this morning indicates that Rasmussen may well be on to a trend.  First, the Rasmussen report for today shows Romney actually increasing his lead by one point.  It's Romney 50%, Obama 42%.  Not significant, of course, since such small variations are within the margin of error.

However, the new results are starting to reflect polling taken after President Obama announced his "conversion" on gay marriage.  We don't see much of an impact.

What about other polls?  We note that Rasmussen polls likely voters.  So do Politico/George Washington University/Battleground, and the Democracy Corps poll.  Politico has Romney up by one, Democracy has a tie.  But both those polls are at least a week behind Rasmussen. 

Gallup tracking, using registered voters, has Romney up by one, and is only one day behind Ras.

Several polls of registered voters, AP and Reuters, show Obama with substantial leads. 

So, the polls differ.  But the fact is that the most recent polls do appear to show a Romney trend.  It will take another week or so for more clarity to appear.

We stress again that polls are snapshots in time, and can change dramatically and quickly.  But the White House cannot be pleased by the polling trend.  In only one of only seven polls listed by RealClearPolitics does the president even hit 50%.

May 12, 2012