REVERSAL OF FORTUNE – AT 9:41 A.M. ET:  A week ago we were all ecstatic over a Rasmussen daily tracker that had Mitt Romney up eight points over Barack Obama.  Well, not so fast, Jones.  Today's Ras tracker tells a different story, and shows how difficult this race will be:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows President Obama earning 46% of the vote and Mitt Romney attracting 45% support. Four percent (4%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another five percent (5%) are undecided.

And Rasmussen is also reporting a hefty rise in the president's approval numbers.  According to his poll, some 49% at least somewhat approve of Obama's performance, whereas 50% disapprove.  Rasmussen makes the point that a president's approval numbers on election day generally approximate the share of the vote he'll receive.

You've probably noticed that the polls have been all over the place, probably because of different polling techniques rather than any sudden changes in public opinion.  Most polls still place Obama ahead.  The RealClearPolitics average of polls gives Obama's current lead as 1.7%. 

In other words, a tough, close election.

May 19,  2012