I WONDER ABOUT THIS – AT 8:41 A.M. ET:  A new ABC/Washington Post poll out this morning shows the presidential race as essentially a dead heat, with a slight edge for Obama.  It also shows the candidates about even on handling the economy:

After months of aggressive campaigning on jobs and the economy, President Obama and Mitt Romney, his likely Republican challenger, are locked in a dead heat over who could fix the problem foremost on voters’ minds, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The parity on economic issues foreshadows what probably will continue to be a tough and negative campaign. Overall, voters would be split 49 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney if the November election were held now. On handling the economy, they are tied at 47 percent.

Despite flare-ups over issues including contraception and same-sex marriage, more than half of all Americans cite the economy as the one concern that will decide their vote in the fall, relegating others — such as health care, taxes and the federal deficit — to single-digit status.

COMMENT:  I find that poll enraging because it is so poorly done.  When you scroll down to the end of the story, you read this:  "The telephone poll was conducted May 17 to 20 among a random sample of 1,004 adults. The margin of sampling error for the full poll is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; it is four points for the sample of 874 registered voters."  That is more confusion than anything.  I assume it means that they polled, randomly, 1,004 adults, but, among those 1,004, 874 claimed to be registered.

We much prefer polls of likely voters, since the only poll that really counts, as the old pols tell us, is the one on election day.  Polls of likely voters tend to tilt more Republican, but not always. 

The true campaign really begins right after Labor Day, still a bit more than three months away.  By then we'll have a GOP vice-presidential candidate.  We'll also have a lot more blood on the floor.  This will be very rough.

May 22, 2012