William Katz:  Urgent Agenda







MORNING RAS – AT 10:15 A.M. ET:  Scott Rasmussen just published his daily tracker, now expanded to 1,000 samples a day over a three-day periodThere is no change from yesterday.  Indeed, what we've seen this week is remarkable stability:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.


New surveying for Monday night finds Romney ahead of the president 50% to 47% in the key swing state of Colorado. That marks little change from a week ago, and the state remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.

In Wisconsin, surveying from Monday night finds the race remains tied at 49%, just like last week. Wisconsin, too, is still a Toss-Up and is critical to Romney’s fortunes if he loses Ohio.


A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Another 49% at least somewhat disapprove.

That is the one troubling number.  Obama's approval in the Rasmussen poll has steadily improved, although not by much, in recent weeks.  I have no idea why.  But this is good:

Republicans now lead Democrats by three points on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

Rasmussen will be reporting on Iowa later today.  The trends have looked good in that state, but let's see the polling results.

COMMENT:  Rasmussen was the most accurate pollster in both 2004 and 2008.  As they say in the stock market, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but right now he's the best we've got.

November 1, 2012