William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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JUST FOR FUN – AT 9:57 A.M. ET:  We mentioned last night that the 2016 race is underway.  Believe it or not, the first polls are already being taken.  From Hot Air:

The PPP poll, which was shared exclusively with POLITICO, shows Clinton taking 58 percent of the Iowa vote in a hypothetical presidential run. Vice President Joe Biden trails far behind at 17 percent, followed by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo at 6 percent and Massachusetts Sen.-elect Elizabeth Warren at 3 percent…

If Clinton doesn’t run, Biden would jump into the lead with a less-commanding 40 percent of the vote, with Cuomo rising to 14 percent and Warren up to 9 percent. In the event that neither Clinton nor Biden runs, Cuomo draws 30 percent to Warren’s 13 percent, with 46 percent of voters unsure who they’d support…

From the list of pols PPP tested, Biden and O’Malley are viewed as most likely to run for the White House in four years.

COMMENT:  (The O'Malley mentioned is the ambitious governor of Maryland.)  Hillary is the main force.  What she decides will probably decide the nomination.  I stress "probably."  It's four years away, and that's a thousand lifetimes in politics.  And don't underestimate Elizabeth Warren, who raised more money from out of state than any Democrat running this year.  To us she's a whack job, and a dishonest one at that, but within the ruling classes of the Democratic Party she's a heroine, a true left-winger who brought down Scott Brown.

I don't think Biden will be much of a factor.  First of all, he'd never be able to find the hall where the nomination will be decided.  Then he'd forget the name of the state.  Never quite ready for prime time.  Into retirement.

I can't imagine Cuomo running against Clinton.  What would he say about her?  Also, Cuomo had been married to a member of the Kennedy family, and there could be some bad stuff that would come out.

The fact is, the Dem bench is very thin.  The GOP bench is loaded with potential stars, so be optimistic. 

Oh, by the way, on another fun front there's buzz that President Obama may not pick Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts for secretary of state, for political reasons.  If Kerry resigns from the Senate, a special election would have to be held to replace him.  The fear in Dem circles is that Scott Brown, defeated by Elizabeth Warren on Tuesday for the other Massachusetts Senate seat, might easily win election, flipping the seat to the GOP.  Poor John.  He can't catch a break.

November 9, 2012