SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 8:59 P.M. ET:

TOLD YOU SO – I noted, after the debate, our "48-hour rule" at Urgent Agenda – that it takes about 48 hours for the left to regroup after a defeat and go right back to the party line.  So today we have The Politico's headline, "How Obama Reset His Campaign."  Gee, he reset it so quickly?  And we have The Politico labeling anyone who questioned this morning's strangely optimistic job figures as the equivalent of 9-11 truthers.  Welcome to bizarro land.  Oh, and The New York Times has an online headline tonight, "Statistics, Not Politics, Are Behind Swings in Jobs Figures."  Essentially, this uses a news headline to write an editorial.

POLLING – New polls are rolling in, and they all show a boost for Romney.  By the end of the day some showed as much as a four-point shift toward Romney following the debate.  We caution that polls are snapshots in time, and that bounces like this, as bounces after conventions, can disappear.  But many observers sense that the change this time may be more permanent, as the candidates' own performances caused it.  There were no actors and no surrogates.  Jay Leno has been ridiculing Obama.  If he's lost Jay...

OHIO – The most intriguing late polling and analyses come from Ohio.  No Republican has won the presidency without winning Ohio (although, of course, there's always a first time).  Rasmussen has Romney making great gains in the state, where recent polls have had him as much as ten points down.  And a new, sophisticated analysis shows that turnout prospects in Ohio strongly favor Romney on election day.  With Romney showing gains in Florida and Virginia, the news is good.  If he can sweep those three states it's hard to see how he could lose the election, unless Egypt's Islamists were allowed to vote.

VENEZUELA – Venezuela votes Sunday.  There is a chance, if the election is straight and enough people vote fearlessly, that Hugo Chavez can be voted out of office.  If that happens, we will have to provide anti-depressants to a number of Hollywood personalities, and to former President Jimmy Carter.  We'll be happy to provide the medication.  Maybe Oliver Stone and Harry Belafonte will seek asylum in Cuba or Iran.

October 5,  2012