WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 9:48 A.M. ET: Today's Rasmussen survey, reflecting responses gathered entirely after Wednesday's debate, confirms yesterday's numbers, meaning the debate bounce for Romney continues, at least for now.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.
These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, today’s update is the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after the first presidential debate last Wednesday night.
The numbers reflect a modest debate bounce for Romney. As with all bounces, it remains to be seen whether it is a temporary blip or signals a lasting change in the race.
Forty-five percent (45%) of voters are “certain” they will vote for Romney and not change their mind before voting. Forty-three percent (43%) are certain they will vote for Obama.
A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 50% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) at least somewhat disapprove.
Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 29% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way Obama is performing as president. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -13.
COMMENT: Essentially, this means that Romney is now winning a race that he was losing, but the margins are still razor thin. Nothing is in the bag.
And you may be sure that Obama, after Wednesday night's debacle, will be fighting back. You may also be sure that every tactic will be tried. While Romney is currently riding a wave of greater GOP enthusiasm, the Dems will trot out the old scare tactics to drag people to the polls. Look for the race card to be heavily played among minority voters, and then covered up by the press.
But I'm optimistic that if Romney can stay on his game, and give us for the next four weeks and two days before the election the same man we saw Wednesday night, he can squeeze this out.
October 7, 2012