SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 7:33 P.M. ET:

VENEZUELA – The presidential election in Venezuela is over.  It was peaceful, from what we can tell.  There are no results yet.  Venezuela is a huge oil exporter, and much rides on this election, which we hope will see Hugo Chavez ousted.  But there are warnings that a Chavez defeat could lead to social unrest among his fanatical followers, which could disrupt any transition.

GALLUP LATEST – Gallup's latest tracking poll again shows only a three-point advantage for Obama, and some of the polling was done before the debate.  There is movement in presidential approval numbers, though.  Gallup shows Obama with only 48% approval and 46% disapproval.  Thus, Obama falls below the magic 50% mark.  Increasingly, however, conservative pundits are predicting some kind of October surprise from the Obamans, with most talking about military action somewhere.

THE BUZZ – There's a lot of buzz about a fundraising scandal about to break over the Obama administration.  It apparently has to do with shadowy funds raised in foreign countries, and some say it will be broken tomorrow in a major publication.  Well, it may happen, and it may be a true scandal.  But I recall that a similar scandal in Obama fundraising occurred in 2008 – as his fundraising operation is slippery – but that it had no serious electoral impact.  Things like this have to be explained.  They involve complex rules.  And unless you can prove that Obama is getting funds from the ghost of bin Laden himself, not many votes are changed.  I hope I'm wrong on that.

October 7, 2012