BULLETIN – AT 9:37 A.M. ET:  To show you how careful we have to be about overconfidence following last week's debate, Rasmussen has just reported the race tied.  He had Romney up two points yesterday.  The bounce has started to fade.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

While there have been modest swings in recent months that have favored one candidate over the other, the overall picture is of a race that is both stable and very close. Over the past 100 days of tracking, Romney and Obama have been within two points of each other 72 times. Additionally, on 89 of those 100 days, the candidates have been within three points of each other. That is exceedingly close in a poll with a three percentage-point margin of error.

And Obama is even gaining a bit in approval, at least in today's report:

A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 51% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) at least somewhat disapprove.

COMMENT:  Most bounces begin to recede a bit at some point.  Maybe we've reached that point.  Remember that Romney had ground to make up, ground lost in the inept first month of his campaign.  The question is now whether his campaign has learned its lesson.

I'm in New York, where we get few presidential ads.  This isn't a swing state.  It's safe for Obama.  The swing states are being bombarded with ads, and the image of Romney pummeling Obama is weakening.

One of the great keys to victory, quite obviously, will be turnout.  Democratic scare tactics ("they'll take away your Social Security") will be employed to the max.  Artful counting will be available in some urban areas.  We've got to get our people out.  I think we will.  There's a renewed energy on our side...assuming we can make it last.

No guarantees.  None.  Go at it.

October 8, 2012