TOUGH IN THE SENATE – AT 8:54 A.M. ET:  Daily polling shows Mitt Romney making substantial gains.  This is going beyond a debate bounce.  I think that what we're getting now is what I mentioned yesterday – the impact of word-of-mouth. 

It's October.  People are now starting to focus seriously on the election, and they're talking to each other.  I suspect that many are coming to the conclusion that we can't take four more years of what we have.

Also, the Obama campaign has gone goofy.  It doesn't seem to know what to do.  Obama on the stump has become a caricature of himself.  He is unconvincing and sometimes condescending. 

However, the election is by no means won.  Most pollsters have it as even, with the momentum to Romney.  We have four weeks to go.  That is many lifetimes in politics.

One place where the Republicans are having a tougher time than expected is in the race for control of the U.S. Senate.  Republicans were given a good shot at taking the Senate, but, as Scott Rasmussen points out, that chance is fading.  Races that should have yielded easy victories are far too close for comfort.  Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota should have been in the bag by now.  Instead, they are too close to call.  Had Olympia Snowe decided to remain in the Senate, Maine would have been an easy win.  Montana, a generally conservative state, should be in our column already.  Too close to call.  We thought Wisconsin was safe when former Governor Tommy Thompson entered the Senate race, but he is, incredibly, trailing flaming liberal Tammy Baldwin of the People's Republic of Madison, who would be the first openly gay senator.   

We had a good shot in Florida.  But Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is unexpectedly strong, and is ahead.  Scott Brown's race in looney-tunes Massachusetts was always going to be tough, but it's hard to believe that faux-native-American Elizabeth Warren could actually win.  Yet, she is ahead in one major poll, with Scott ahead in the other.

We had a few moments of heady optimism when a recent poll showed Republican Linda McMahon ahead in Connecticut, another blue state, but she has now fallen behind her opponent, Chris Murphy.  And we looked to terrific Josh Mandel to defeat ultra-liberal Dem Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio.  So far Brown is hanging on.  Arizona may still stay in the GOP column, but the race is close.   

It really doesn't look all that good for our side in Senate races.  Control of the Senate is vital to block bad Supreme Court nominations, should Obama be, Heaven forbid, re-elected.   The races are close.  If Republicans can pull a good surge in the next month, the miracle can still happen.

October 10, 2012