ROMNEY HOLDING – AT 10:12 A.M. ET: We've said here before that the only thing that counts in presidential debates is who wins. No great wisdom or knowledge will be imparted.
Rasmussen's daily tracker this morning, with a third of the respondents polled after the vice-presidential debate, shows Romney holding. If Rasmussen had noted any sudden change after the debate, he would have reported it. So we can tentatively (and cautiously) say that the debate probably didn't change any minds.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 48%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.
Forty-three percent (43%) are certain they will vote for Romney and will not change their minds. Forty-one percent (41%) are that certain they will vote for Obama.
A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 50% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) at least somewhat disapprove.
Rasmussen Reports polling tends to show smaller swings than other polls for a variety of reasons. In 2008, we showed virtually no change during the final 40 days of the campaign. Then-candidate Obama was between 50% and 52% in our polling every single day. He generally held a five- or six-point lead, occasionally bouncing up to an eight-point advantage and only once falling below a four point-lead. This stable assessment of the race is consistent with the reality of what we know about voter behavior. Obama won the election by a 53% to 46% margin.
COMMENT: In other words, this race is tight and will probably remain tight, right up to election day, with one candidate winning by two points or so.
Scott Rasmussen is extremely careful, and has been very accurate. I think it's fair to say that he leans Republican in his personal views. He is signaling us to work exceedingly hard because this contest can go either way, and he's right.
October 13, 2012