TONIGHT'S THE NIGHT – AT 8:16 A.M. ET:  Will today turn out to be one of the most important political days of our lives?  Well, it's possible.   This presidential election is one of the most important in our lifetime – a true choice between two visions of America – and tonight's presidential debate may prove decisive.

So today might be very important indeed.  Might be.

Mitt Romney must show tonight that he wasn't a one-debate wonder.  I have confidence that he will succeed.  He built up substantial debating skills during the primaries, getting better each time, and he showed those skills during the first presidential debate.  His minimum requirement tonight is simply to "ratify" the impression he gave at the first debate. 

For Barack Obama, the road is more steep.  He must climb back to where he was.  His first debate performance was pathetic, an embarrassment.  Presumably, he's learned and will be animated this time.  But he is not known as a man who accepts criticism, so I'm not sure what kind of "improvement" we'll get.  He is given to low blows when pressed, and the myth of his "likability" has been largely punctured.  He isn't very likable at all.  So he is tonight's big question mark.

Another question mark is the moderator, Candy Crowley, of CNN.  She has been acting like the queen of the May recently, making it clear that she sees herself as an active participant.  Will she try to tilt the debate to the president?  She might, but I have a feeling the Romney people will know how to respond to that.  Their preparation has been remarkable.

The election is three weeks from today.  That is a long time.  We've seen movement toward our side, but there are no guarantees.  Remember, Obama has the power of incumbency.  And I think he's a man who would do almost anything to win, and I hesitated to write "almost."  He could pull an October or early-November surprise, possibly involving military action, and come to the American people pleading for "national unity" at "this time of crisis." 

It's been done before.  In 1968 President Lyndon Johnson tried to help Democratic presidential nominee Hubert Humphrey by ordering a bombing halt in areas of the Vietnam conflict right before the election.  It was utterly transparent, though, and probably didn't help Humphrey's cause. 

We must run as if we're 20 points behind.  That's the only way. 

October 16,  2012