BULLETIN:  OBAMA TIES ROMNEY IN RASMUSSEN POLL – Rasmussen's daily tracker, just released, shows a 48-48 tie between the presidential candidates.  This is a slight drop for Romney, who led by two yesterday, and one the day before.

Two thirds of the respondents were polled after the debate.  Tomorrow's tracker will be entirely based on interviews done after that debate.

So Rasmussen has it a dead heat.  Gallup yesterday, also polling likely voters, had Romney up seven, which I think is a bit of an outlier.  The IBD/Tripp tracker yesterday had Obama up by half a point.

Ramussen also includes this, to caution that Romney hasn't yet made the sale:

Among those who Somewhat Approve of Obama’s performance, eight percent (8%) favor Romney. When George W. Bush ran for reelection in 2004, his opponent, Senator John Kerry, got 15% support from those who Somewhat Approved of Bush's record.

Among those who Somewhat Disapprove of Obama’s performance, Romney gets just 68% of the vote. Kerry got 80% support from those who Somewhat Disapproved of Bush. This may suggest that some who are disappointed by Obama’s performance remain unconvinced that the Republican challenger would do any better.

That has always been the danger for Romney.  Obama can't get to 50%, indicating the public is ready for a change.  It just has to be convinced that Romney represents the kind of change it's looking for.  This race, despite the trends in Romney's direction that we've seen, is far from won. 

A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) at least somewhat disapprove.

COMMENT:  As they say, the only poll that counts is the one on election day.  This is no time for overconfidence.  We will be looking to see if the Romney surge has been blunted by Obama's debate performance, new Obama ads, or an increasingly heated press bias.  The media types are trying to revive the "war on women" theme, and it may have some effect. 

October 19, 2012