TWO WEEKS AND FOUR DAYS TO GO – AT 8:42 A.M. ET:  Seems like a short time, but it's many lifetimes in politics.  Anything can happen.  Republicans are on guard against an October surprise, especially some military action that might tempt some Americans to rally 'round the president.

And there could be a gaffe.  Yesterday's goof by Obama, saying that the deaths of four Americans in Libya was "not optimal," is getting substantial play on the internet.  John McCain has already picked it up as an example of Obama's indifference to the Libyan disaster.

We eagerly look forward to today's trackers.  Did Tuesday's debate change the numbers?  So far, no.  Today's Rasmussen poll, though, will be based on interviews, two thirds of which took place after the debate.  If nothing moves in his direction, that is a very bad sign for Obama.  It would simply mean that either 1) Romney won on the economy, which is the number one issue, or 2) the voters have made up their minds about the Obama record, and it is a negative verdict, or 3) both of the above.

We will be looking at the intriguing movement in state polls toward Romney.  I haven't seen a single state poll in the last week that shows a movement toward Obama.  Look to new Ohio polls.  It's being reported that the Obama forces are ready to give up on Virginia and Florida, but are trying to hold Ohio as part of Obama's firewall.  If Ohio goes, Romney can start measuring the drapes in the White House. 

And be sure to look at Pennsylvania polls.   As we noted last night, one new poll has Romney leading in Pennsylvania.  That's one poll.  If that trend continues, Obama doesn't even have to stay up late on election night.

Stand by.

October 19,  2012