RASMUSSEN:  ELECTORAL COLLEGE ESSENTIALLY DEADLOCKED – AT 9:42 A.M. ET:  The new Rasmussen tracker, out minutes ago, continues to show Romney at 49%, Obama at 47%.  The key here is that an incumbent president is not reaching 50%.

More important, Ras now has the electoral college basically deadlocked:

The projections now show President Obama with 237 Electoral Votes and Governor Romney with 235. Seven states with 66 Electoral College votes remain Toss-ups: Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire.

That list simply highlights the importance of Ohio, with its 18 electoral votes.  It is hard (but not impossible) to see how either candidate can win without taking Ohio, and Ohio is neck-and-neck.  Yes, there are statistical combinations one can present to avoid Ohio.  If, say, Romney were to capture Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9) and New Hampshire (4), leaving Ohio and Nevada to Obama, he would have 271 electoral votes, one more than needed to win.  The problem there is Paul Ryan's home state of Wisconsin.  The large black vote in Milwaukee, and flake vote in Madison, may be too much to handle.  If Wisconsin does go for Romney, and allows him to win without Ohio, his choice of Ryan will be seen as an act of political genius.  If Romney loses Wisconsin, and it costs him the election, assuming Ohio goes Democratic, his choice of Ryan will be seen as a blunder.  That's the way politics works.  You may be sure Ryan is working his you-know-what off to capture his home state.

October 22, 2012