FACING REALITY – AT 9:09 A.M. ET:  Of course we're all hopeful that we'll be smiling two weeks from Wednesday.  But we have to work like beavers.  Let us face certain realities about this election.

First, the presidential race remains very tight.  I depend on Scott Rasmussen more than any other pollster, and he says the race is too close to call.  Of course, I take comfort in the Gallup tracker showing Romney seven points up, but I don't know if it's accurate.  Some national surveys, like NBC/Wall Street Journal, show the race tied.  IBD/Tipp and Zogby still show Obama ahead.  The next two weeks will be ugly.  The Chicago boys will throw everything they have at Romney, and an October surprise of some kind is coming. 

Also, the state voting is just as tight as the national race.  A few points either way in a number of states could produce an electoral landslide for either of the candidates.  Being close, or gaining, is not enough.  It reminds me of the old story of the guy who sees a man drowning 20 feet offshore, throws him a 15-foot rope, then boasts that he's met him more than halfway.  You have to win.  We don't give silver medals in politics.  As we've said, if you're 30 points behind, and make up 29 by election day, you go into obscurity, not into office.

Second, the Dems will probably gain in the House.  The Republican sweep of 2010 was so enormous that some normally Democratic districts went Republican.  Now they are inching back, and Dems will probably recapture some of those seats.  Virtually all pollsters are looking to Democratic advances in the House. 

Third, and very important, the second highest priority for Republicans this year is capturing the Senate.  But most pollsters now say that may well be out of reach.  Some bad luck, some weak candidates, and some odd circumstances have combined to force the GOP to fight for seats, as in Indiana and Missouri, that should have been easy wins.  And Scott Brown is in jeopardy in Massachusetts, which may elect moonbat Elizabeth Warren.  Look, it's Massachusetts.  It's a political Disneyland.

I still think it's possible, especially if Romney wins, for the Republicans to hit 50 seats, but it will be very, very difficult.

If Obama should squeeze by, if the Dems retain the Senate – with its key power to confirm Supreme Court judges – and should the Dems pick up seats in the House, two weeks from tomorrow will be a sorry day.  It can happen...but I'm hoping that the demonstrable enthusiasm on our side won't let it.  Stay optimistic, but call your friends.

October 22, 2012