MITT HOLDS IN RASMUSSEN TRACKER – AT 9:58 A.M. ET:   For the second day, Mitt Romney leads 50-46 in the Rasmussen tracker. 

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 46%. Two percent (2%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

This is the second straight day with Romney enjoying a 4-point advantage. Prior to that, with the exception of the convention bounces, neither candidate had led by more than three points for months. However, it is not clear whether this represents a lasting change in the race or is merely statistical noise. See daily tracking history.

These updates are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, approximately two-thirds of the interviews for today’s update were completed before the end of Monday night’s presidential debate. The single night of interviews conducted after the debate is similar to the two-point advantage Romney has enjoyed recently rather than the current four-point spread. As always, caution should be used when interpreting a single night of data in a tracking poll. Friday morning will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the final debate.

What I like about Rasmussen is how calm and professional he is.  He's warning us that Romney's advantage may dip a point or so if more voters perceived that Obama won the debate.

But here is something very dramatic from Ras:

In Ohio, the race is now tied at 48%. Romney is trusted more than Obama on economic issues and energy policy, while Obama has the edge on national security. The president has a 10-point advantage among those who have already voted.

I don't know how many have already voted, and why Obama would have such an edge in this group.  It may have to do with demographics.  But if the race is tied overall, that is very good news for Romney.  I believe a tie means a Romney victory, simply because his voters are so much more energized, and will actually vote.

Ohio is very tight, obviously, and voter fraud may turn out to be a major issue there.  We'll have more on that tomorrow.

Obama has gained a bit in job approval, at least in the Rasmussen survey:

A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) at least somewhat disapprove.

COMMENT:  The good news is that voter preference polls are going in Romney's direction, although the pace of the advance has slowed.  This is now a day-by-day race.  A few points in one state can decide the election.

October 24, 2012      Permalink